Pink Poogle Toy Forum

Bleh. Hurried betting. Not particularly happy with these. Took out all the Lagoon boosters, as I'd rather cover more options than have the boosters.

Fran x Scurvy x (Fed; Black)
Ed x Fed x (Tail, Scurvy) x Black
Ed x Fed x Scurvy x Stripe
Buck x Fed x Scurvy x (Stripe, Capn, Black)
Buck x Ned x Scurvy x Black
Buck x Fed x Tail x Black


ETA: My one Ned safety bet paid off 40:10. Not too shabby!

Only 8:10. There were just too many possibilities, so of course I missed the right safety. At least I got nearly all my NP back, but this 6-day mediocrity streak can end today, please.

Edit:

Gambit: Scurvy Orvinn Stuff Goo Puff
no hold
P(16:10-52:10): 63%
EV: 1.67-2.16

Bets:
Scurvy x (Stuff, Luck, Bonnie) x Goo
(Fed, Buck) x Fair x Goo
Scurvy x Fair x Fran
Scurvy x (all in Lagoon) x Fair x Goo

Skipped the Stuff safety for the more likely Buck safety. Wish I could have covered some of the double upsets, but I followed my system.

Took out all boosters. Might end up with only 8:10, if it's a 2's day, but I'd rather cover the potential double upsets that I have:

Scurvy x (All in TI) x Goo
(Fed, Buck) x (Fair, Stuff) x Goo
Scurvy x (Stuff, Fair) x Fran


ETA: Busted due to the triple upset of ALL the 2:1 arenas at once. Covered all the upsets...and all of them with each other in pairs...but not all three together! Ah well. Should've done the 10-bet on Squire that I was tempted to do, since he won yet again. Shoulda coulda woulda...

I was due for a bust anyways, so, eh. Ah well.

ETA2: How often do Stuff AND Squire win on the same day, anyways? And how often is it that NO 2:1's win? (Random thoughts that I came up with later. Maybe I'll ask Mr. P to do a check on that. Just for curiosity's sake.)

Also busted. At least now I don't have to kick myself for removing the Stuff bet. Yesterday's triple upset had a 1.1% chance of winning - below my personal threshold of 3%, but not really that extreme considering. (And considering the other two arenas had no 2s, the overall P of those 3 + 2 other non-2s winning was also 1.1%. The overall P of all non-2s was 5.6% yesterday, which is actually pretty high. Of course, on days with fewer 2s, it's a lot less.)

Gambit: Young Ed Goo Stripe Ned
no hold
P(6:10-24:10): 76% (P(12+:10)=58%)
EV: 1.08-1.56

Bets:
Goo x (Ned, Orvinn)
Fed x (Ned, Tail)
Goo x Tail x (all in Lagoon; Fran, Bonnie)

You could omit the Fran and Bonnie boosters, add in the base bet... and then I'm not sure what to do with the last bet (which is why I didn't do that), but maybe: Scurvy x Tail or Fed x Orvinn. *shrugs*

Meh. Don't really like my set today, but here it is:

Goo x Tail x (all in Lagoon)
Ned x Tail x (Fran, Bonnie)
Goo x (Ned, Orvinn)
Fed x Ned
Scurvy x Tail


ETA: 18:10

Not too bad.

I also got 18:10 on the safety.

New day, new bets:
Gambit: Fair Peg Fed Goo Ed
no hold
P(12:10-50:10): 54%
EV: 1.06-1.41

Bets:
(Fair, Scurvy) x (Bonnie, Black) x Fed
(Stripe, Fran) x Bonnie x Fed
(Fair, Scurvy) x Bonnie x Luck
Scurvy x Bonnie x Fed x (Buck, Goo)

Meh. Here's hoping I hit one of the higher bets today. This streak of mediocrity has been going on long enough.

Might end up coming home with a bit of a loss (if the 2's in my bets all win), but otherwise...yeah. Really hoping Bonnie pulls through today!

(All in SW) x Bonnie x Fed
(Scurvy, Fair) x Black x Fed
(Scurvy, Fair) x Bonnie x (Capn, Luck)

Busted thanks to the deep upset in Lagoon. *sigh*

New day, new bets:
Gambit: Ned Goo Buck Puff Fed
no hold
P(12:10-32:10): 72%
EV: 1.63-1.85

Bets:
(all in SW; Stripe, Fed) x Goo x Buck
(all in SW) x Goo x Capn

Pretty straightforward set. Hopefully I can get at least 20:10 (there's a 67% chance I will, but that's not a sure thing...).

Puffed yesterday. Sigh.

A little bit more reserved, but pretty much the same:

(all in SW) x Goo x (Buck, Capn)
Scurvy x (Buck, Capn)

ETA: Busted thanks to Squire's long-shot upset. He's won a LOT lately!

Also busted. Ridiculous.

Made quick bets today. Most likely will go home with a loss, but, eh.

(Capn, Luck) x (All in Lagoon)
Puff x (Fed, Tail)

Gambit: Capn Tail Young Fair Ned
no hold

Bets:
(Capn, Luck) x (Tail, Fed)
Luck x (Ed, Peg)
Puff x Fed
Luck x Fed x (HH - Bonnie)

26:10

Can't complain!

Same.

Gambit: Fran Ed Scurvy Puff Goo
VH: 26:10
P(28:10-144:10): 68%
EV: 2.66-3.14

Bets:
Fran x (all in Lagoon; HC - Capn) x Goo
Ned x Scurvy x Goo
Fran x (Fair, Peg) x Goo

Today looks promising. Please, please, please don't be a trap. Although I really shouldn't care anymore.

Risking it and 10-betting Goo today.

Fran x Scurvy x Goo x (All in HH; Lagoon - Stripe)
Fran x (Fair, Peg) x Goo
Ned x Scurvy x Goo

Hopefully no double upsets in the main 3 arenas today. And hopefully Goo wins. He's been low on wins lately, though, which is why I risked it.