Pink Poogle Toy Forum

12:10 yesterday. Not great, but still a win.

Buck x (Stuff, Black, Orvinn) x Goo
Tail x Scurvy x Goo
Ned x Scurvy x (Fed, Stripe) x Goo
Buck x Scurvy x (Fed, Stripe) x (Goo, Luck)

Gambit: Peg Ned Scurvy Stripe Luck
no hold
P(24:10-108:10): 58%
EV: 1.83-2.22

Bets:
Buck x Scurvy x (Luck, Goo)
(Ned, Tail) x Scurvy x Goo
Buck x (Black, Stuff) x Goo
Buck x Scurvy x (Fed, Stripe) x (Luck, Goo)

36:10

Can't complain!

I also won 36:10. Woot! Hopefully I'll break even for the month in the next few days. I'm still at 280% net profit for the month... but there's a lot of month left.

Edit for new bets:

Gambit: Fed Goo Young Stripe Black
VH: 36:10
P(12:10-52:10): 81%
EV: 1.33-1.74

Bets:
Goo x (Young, Puff, Capn)
(Peg, Fair) x Tail
(Ned, Fed; HH - Stuff) x Goo x Tail

Large chance of mediocrity, but following my system to cover the safeties even though they seem unlikely based on strength/allergies/favorites.

Really not sure how I feel about a set without Tail in it - he looks too strong to dismiss, so I'm deviating some. I'd rather have an 8:10 than bust!

Orvinn
(Goo, Peg, Fair) x Young
Goo x (Puff, Capn)
(Ned, Fed) x Goo x (Tail, Young)


ETA: Knew Tail was warranted. Wish I'd deviated a lot more from system, but at least I got the 8:10 rather than nothing.

16:10.

Gambit: Scurvy Fran Goo Tail Fed
VH: 52:20
P(16:10-184:10): 53%
EV: 2.41-3.64

Bets:
Scurvy x Fran x Goo x Buck x Fed
Scurvy x Goo x Tail x Fed
(Scurvy, Orvinn, Luck; Fran, Ned, Fair) x Goo x Buck x Fed
Scurvy x Young x Buck x Fed
Goo x Bonnie x Fed

It's an Admiral Ackbar day. The last one wasn't a trap. Will this one be one? So exhausted, I probably missed an important safety, but here's to hoping it doesn't matter!

(All in SW) x Goo x Buck x Fed
Orvinn x Fran x Goo x Fed
Scurvy x Goo x Tail x Fed
Goo x Tail x Fed
Young x Tail x Fed
Young x Buck x Fed
Goo x Buck x Stripe

ETA: 84:10 on the Young x Tail x Fed!!!!

Well, I was betting on a 2sday (with lots of safeties), so of course there were 4 upsets in the positive arenas... I covered Young, Tail, and Orvinn and omitted Lagoon (where Ed upset) in several bets, but I didn't go beyond a triple upset.

Gambit: Bonnie Ed Goo Young Peg
no hold
P(24:10-something much bigger): 51%
EV: 1.53-2.23

Bets:
Bonnie x Ed x Goo x Peg
Bonnie x (Ed, Tail) x Goo x Buck
(Fair, Fed) x Ed x Goo x Buck
(Bonnie, Fed) x Ed x Scurvy x Buck
Ed x Goo x (Buck, Black, Stripe)

Betting blind today. May not want to follow.

Going a little off system today, and skipping all Bonnie boosters for some additional safeties. It'll probably be a 2's day, but hunch betting.

Ed x Goo x (All in HH)
(Tail, Capn, Squire) x Goo x Buck
Ed x Scurvy x (Buck, Peg)
Squire x Scurvy x Buck

Could replace the Squire and Capn safeties with any of the of the following:
Bonnie x Ed x Goo x (Peg, Buck)
Bonnie x Tail x Goo x Buck
Bonnie x Ed x Scurvy x Buck
Tail x Scurvy x Buck

24:10. Not bad. Too bad I didn't have room for the HC boosters.

8:10 here. Not a bust, so I'm not complaining. If I'd followed my alternate bets, I'd've also gotten the 24:10...but, I didn't, so I didn't. Still, I'm at 284:100 for the month, so just a little more to break even for the whole month! Woot!

ETA: Today's bets look terrible. High chance of a lot of nothing. I'd almost recommend against betting.

Here's my meh, probably safe set:
Ed x (All in HH; Stripe)
Fair
Goo x (Buck, Fed; Orvinn, Bonnie)

Maybe I'll be lucky and come out ahead. Hah!

Oh, I forgot to check - I'm 306:100 for the month, so I should tip over soon. Still over 200% net for the month thus far, so I guess I'm overdue for some losses. Hopefully not today.

Gambit: Stripe Ed Tail Buck Bonnie
VH: 24:10
P(10:10-18:10): 95%
EV: 1.06-1.29

Bets:
Ed x (Buck, Fed)
Fair
Goo x (TI - Peg; all in HH)

You could substitute SW for HH boosters, or maybe omit the Fairfax bet and replace the TI boosters with the SW ones. *shrugs* No matter how you slice it, there's not a lot of EV to be had. *sigh*

Edit: Guess I should have gone with the last option I listed; I would have won 14:10 instead of the 10:10 I got. At least I didn't lose anything...

4:10 yesterday. Guess that's what I get for following system and assuming it was right about Ed. Ah well, not a complete bust.

Basically hoping for an upset today. Leaving out the Buck boosters for a bit more safety. Part of me wanted to 10-bet on Squire, because he looks pretty strong and he's way past due for a win...but...I didn't.

Fed x (Young, Luck, Fran) x (Goo, Ed)
Tail x (Fran, Young, Luck) x Goo
Tail x Fran x Ed

Gambit: Fed Scurvy Young Goo Ned
no hold
P(24:10-144:10): 60%
EV: 1.92-2.48

Bets:
Fed x Fran x Goo x (Buck, Stripe)
Fed x (all in Lagoon) x Fran x Goo x Buck
Fed x (Young, Luck) x Goo
Tail x Fran x Goo
Fed x Fran x Ed

Took HH off the non-HH safeties to increase the overall P(win). I skipped some long-shot double safeties with low P but higher EV. Hopefully I don't regret it!

Edit: 28:10 on the Young safety. Kind of wish I'd left HH in that bet, but I can't complain. I think P got the same. Woot for already being locked into profit for the month!

*headdesk* Wish I'd 10-bet Squire... Ah well. Hindsight is 20/20.

Still, a 28:10 today...and with that, I'm net positive for the month.