Pink Poogle Toy Forum

Mostly following, with a couple safeties pulled up.

Fran x (Goo, Tail)
Buck x (Luck, Tail)
Fair x Goo
Buck x (Puff; Orvinn) x Goo
Fran x Puff x Goo
Fran x (Fed, Ed) x Luck

20:10

Glad I doubled my money, but a bit miffed my system had me go easy on the safeties yesterday (2 upsets in the base) and heavy on them today (a 2sday)... Trying to focus on what I did earn today instead of remembering yesterday or thinking about what could have been.

Meh. Not too happy about these, but here they are:

(Fed, Bonnie, Ned) x Goo x Scurvy x Buck
(Bonnie, Ned) x Goo x Buck
Fed x Goo x (Ed, Luck) x Buck
Fed x Goo x Scurvy x Fair
(Squire, Young) x Buck

Today just feels like a trap, even with the Goo-less safeties...

P(16:10-168:10): 49%
EV: 2.25-3.71

Bets:
Fed x Goo x Scurvy x Buck x (Tail, Black)
Bonnie x Goo x Scurvy x Buck x Tail
Fed x Goo x Luck x Buck x Tail
Fed x Goo x Scurvy x Fair x Tail
Fed x Goo x Ed x Buck
(Fed, Bonnie) x Goo x (Scurvy, Luck) x Buck

I can't resist these risky sets on days like today, even though I seem to bust more often than the P says.

Edit: 48:10. I nearly forgot to place my bets (started placing them at 2:51pm NST; the round has been ending around 2:56pm). I'm really glad I got them in on time!

New bets:
P(16:10-72:10): 55%
EV: 1.06-1.82

Bets:
Bonnie x Scurvy x (Puff, Black, Capn)
Fed x Scurvy x (Black, Capn)
Scurvy x Black
Bonnie x Scurvy x Black x (all in HC)

Playing a little on the risky side today:

Bonnie x Fair
Scurvy x Black x Ed
Bonnie x Scurvy x (All in TI; All in HC)

Busted thanks to the Ned x Capn combo.

P(24:10-84:10): 56%
EV: 2.52-3.19

Bets:
Fran x Goo x (Tail, Ed, Young) x Ned
Fran x Goo x Ed x (Capn, Puff)
(Fed, Bonnie) x Goo x Ed x Ned
Goo x Tail x Capn
Goo x Ed x (Fran; Orvinn)

You could leave Fran off the TI and HH safeties to increase the overall P(win).

Also busted. Sigh.

Today seems pretty risky.

Fran x Goo x Ed x (Capn, Puff, Ned)
Fran x Goo x Orvinn
Fran x Goo x (Tail, Young)
Fran x Ed x (Capn, Orvinn)
(Bonnie, Fed) x Goo x Ed x Ned

ETA: Busted. I had this feeling this was going to be a multiple-upset day. 2 6:1's and a 13:1 definitely mess things up. Meh.

Another bust. December's full of rust.

P(14:10-52:10): 78%
EV: 1.40-1.79

Bets:
(Scurvy, Stripe, Fair) x Goo
Buck x Fed
Buck x Goo x (all in HC; Ed, Luck)

Relatively standard, safe set. Meh.

Yeah, I'm not thrilled with December so far. Usually by around the 15th, I've at least broken even for the month, but I'm still 1.6 mil in the hole, assuming I bet every day left in the month...which I may or may not, depending on how crazy it ends up being. But still...

Not really thrilled with today's. Will probably bust, because I'm guessing it'll end up being a Fran/Fed upset, but since I couldn't pick one, I went with Squire. (Yeah, how's that for logic?) Here we go:

(Stripe, Scurvy, Fair) x Goo
(All in Lagoon) x Goo x Puff
Stuff x Buck x Goo
(Buck, Scurvy) x Squire

24:10

I'm at 274:180 for the month (52% net). About half the profit I usually get.

Is Mr. P still betting? If so, has his system continued to be as lucky as it first seemed?

New bets:
P(24:10-52:10): 55%
EV: 1.20-2.29

Bets:
(Ed, Tail) x Goo x (Scurvy, Fed)
Tail x (Black, Luck) x Scurvy
Tail x Goo x (Scurvy, Fed) x (Bonnie, Fair)

Mr. P has hardly had time at the computer lately. I only get bets in when the kids are all down for naps, which is still dicey sometimes.

Bleh. System wants me to 10-bet Goo and Scurvy. Don't think so.

(All in SW) x Goo x Scurvy
(Ed, Tail) x Goo x Scurvy x Fair
Tail x (Black, Luck) x Scurvy
Ed x (Black, Luck)

ETA: FINALLY!!! A decent win!! 96:10!!
I guess 10-betting Goo and Scurvy wasn't such a bad idea today, but the Fair bet was still not in the top 10 (it was #21, a few after a similar one with Fran instead of Fair. Fair's +4 food boost is what had me lean towards him over Bonnie, which, had I followed the system, I'd've used instead).

I'm still not breaking even for the month, but that sure helped a heap!

Mr. P had time to bet today, and had 4 winning bets today, nailing the two that I did, plus Ed x Goo and Ed x Goo x Fair, with a win of 144:10!

Weird. When I placed my bets, the system technically wanted me to bet heavily on Ed, but I spread myself a bit thin trying to get my overall P(win) over 50%. *sigh* Otherwise, I'd have gotten the same thing as P.

Still, 24:10 isn't bad.

I feel like I should've covered Capn, but...I didn't. Modified as Black looks pretty strong, so I pulled safeties for him up from the 20's and 30's on my list.

(Stripe, Luck, Young) x Black
(Goo, Fed; Squire; Tail) x Young x Scurvy
(Peg, Luck, Stripe) x Scurvy

P(10:10-45:10): 85%
EV: 0.97-1.59

Bets:
(Stripe, Luck, Peg) x Scurvy
(Stripe, Young) x Black
Young x Scurvy x (Goo, Fed; HC - Orvinn)

Edit: 24:10 for the third day in a row. I'm totally fine with that! Finally guaranteed to break even for the month even if I were to bust for the rest of it (though of course I'd rather keep up this 24:10 streak...).