Pink Poogle Toy Forum

New Split!

Previous Split here

Thanks, Siniri.

Going crazy risky today. Expecting to bust.
(Ed, Bonnie) x (Tail, Scurvy, Puff)
(All in TI) x Squire

P(12:10-56:10): 86%
EV: 1.41-1.74

Bets:
(Goo, Ed) x (Tail, Scurvy)
Goo x Puff
Bonnie x Scurvy
Goo x Scurvy x (all in HH)

I don't trust any of the positive arenas. Hopefully one of my higher-paying bets will pay off today, though.

Edit: 12:10. The Goo x Tail x Lucky double safety was the first bet on my spreadsheet, but I felt I didn't have enough coverage with ten bets, so I took off HC for most of my safeties. *sigh*

Busted, as expected.
Goo x Tail x Luck was also first on mine...but I didn't follow mine worth beans (though I thought about it, I wiped out all the Goo bets initially and went crazy from there...)
I considered doing Tail x all in HH instead of the Squire bets, but oh well. If I'd followed the system, I'd've done much better.

ETA:
Not 100% happy with these, but here they are. Leaving out some boosters to cover more upsets.

Scurvy x (all in HC) x Goo
Scurvy x Tail x (Ed, Puff)
Stripe x (Goo, Puff, Ed)
Squire x Puff (yeah, don't ask on that one)

P(24:10-72:10): 50%
EV: 2.39-2.85

Bets:
Scurvy x Buck x (Bonnie, Squire) x Goo
Scurvy x (all in TI) x Tail x Goo
Scurvy x Buck x Tail x (Ed, Puff)
Stripe x Buck x Tail x Goo
Scurvy x Tail x Goo

Flipping a coin today. I've had a string of bad luck lately, which has absolutely no bearing on today.

ETA: 56:10. Not bad for a coin flip.

Sigh. Could've had the 56:10, but only got 14:10 because I spread myself thinner. Ah well.

P(14:10-96:10): 76%
EV: 1.79-2.60

Bets:
Fed x Goo x (all in SW; all in HC)
Fed x Fran
Peg x Goo

Playing it safe because two of the positive arenas look really risky.

Mostly following but putting in a few safeties and bumping up some booster-less bets. Wish I had one more bet...sigh. I'd cover Buck x Fed x Stripe x Goo if I could.

Peg x (Fran, Goo)
(Black, Ed, Bonnie) x Fed x Goo
Buck x Fed x (Scurvy, Fair) x Goo
Buck x Fed x Fran
Fed x Fair x (Fran, Goo)

ETA:
Fed, I got. Fair I covered. Young...not so much. Sigh. Busted.

Guess I didn't need to worry about SW, but I was watching Fair since he was strongest in his arena. Of course Young Sproggie had to spoil everything. The first winning bet I'd have considered placing was 123rd on my spreadsheet. If I go that low, I'm doing something wrong.

Edit for new bets:
P(12:10-26:10): 67%
EV: 0.84-1.67

Bets:
Goo x (Fed, Scurvy) x (HC - Squire)
Goo x (HC - Squire)
Ed x Fed

You could leave off Ed x Fed and replace it with the Goo x Fed base bet to increase your minimum win (reducing overall P(win) by 5%), or with the Goo x Bonnie safety (which I overlooked in my haste to place my bets... doh!). Large P(mediocrity).

A little riskier set for me. Mostly following, but bumped up some Ed safeties.

Goo x (Buck, Black, Stuff) x Fed
Goo x Fed x (Puff, Fair)
Goo x Bonnie
Goo x Stuff x (Puff, Fair)
Ed x (Bonnie, Fed)

0:10. I was right to be worried about Gooblah, but a true 13:1 won by some miracle. (Seriously, Ned had 14 less strength than Gooblah, and he had 3 fewer food allowance points, which roughly translate to about 5 strength points each... That means he overcame a 29-point strength deficit vs. Gooblah and a 20-point strength deficit vs. Ed.)

Also busted yesterday. Not really following today, as I'm not feelin' Fran today. I'm not 100% sure on Goo or Scurvy, so I put in safeties on them, but here we go:

Scurvy x Goo x (SW - Stripe; All in HC)
Scurvy x (Fed; Luck)
Young x Goo

P(16:10-132:10): 52%

Bets:
Scurvy x Goo x (Tail, Fair)
(all in SW; all in HC) x Scurvy x Goo x Fran

Edit: Busted. Guess I should have safetied Goo, but the EV was just too low, and Fed didn't actually look very strong. *sigh*

December FC is not getting into the spirit of the month of Giving...

14:10 on the Scurvy x Fed safety. Glad I left Fran out of it!

P(8:10-42:10): 79%
EV: 1.05-1.65

Bets:
(Fran, Buck) x (Luck, Goo, Tail)
Buck x Goo x (Fed, Ed; Scurvy, Stripe)

Blargh.