Pink Poogle Toy Forum

Yeah, the same bet was my number 11, Pickles... I only had room for one double safety, and I went with the one with the highest P. Oh, well... I knew I was flipping a coin.

New day, new bets:
P(12:10-54:10): 61%
EV: 1.20-2.20

Bets:
(Black, Fair) x Goo x (Luck, Fed)
Puff x Goo x Luck
Fran x Goo x (Stripe, Fed)
Fran x (Buck, Ed, Bonnie) x Goo x Luck

Don't trust Goo as far as I could throw him today. Don't know why...just a feeling. Pulling in safeties for it that feeling, and leaving out the TI boosters.

Fran x (All in HC) x Luck
(Fair, Puff, Black) x Goo x Luck
Fran x Goo x Stripe
Fair x (Tail, Ned)

32:10 on the Ed booster. Woot!

New day, new bets:
P(16:10-40:10): 70%
EV: 1.21-1.68

Bets:
Goo x Ned
Stripe x Scurvy
(Fed, Tail) x Goo x (Scurvy, Ned)
(all in Lagoon) x Goo x Scurvy

Relatively safe set, though Blackbeard looks really strong for a 13:1 in SW.

8:10 yesterday.
Still don't trust Goo. Stripe looks pretty strong today. I know it's a long shot, but I'm going to bet heavier on him than Goo.

(Fed, Tail) x Goo x (Scurvy, Ned)
Stripe x (Scurvy, Peg, Ned)
(Fed, Tail; Ed) x Stripe x Scurvy

ETA: 12:10

I still don't trust Goo. But, he keeps winning anyways. I'm still not gonna 10-bet on him anytime soon, though, that's for sure.

18:10

Not ideal, but here we go:

Buck x (Ed, Scurvy) x Bonnie
Goo x Ed x (Stripe, Bonnie)
Goo x Orvinn x Bonnie
Goo x Scurvy x (Stripe, Black)
Goo x Scurvy x (Fran, Fed, Fair) x Bonnie

P(8:10-42:10): 71%
EV: 1.32-2.19

Bets:
(Goo, Buck) x (Ed, Scurvy) x Bonnie
Goo x Orvinn x Bonnie
Goo x Scurvy x (Stripe, Black)
Buck x Scurvy x Stripe
Goo x Scurvy x (Luck, Young) x Bonnie

If I bet based on food adjustments and strength alone, I wouldn't have had any safeties at all... but I bet on EV, so I have lots of safeties instead.

Edit: Bah! I covered 3 double safeties on top of the 4 single safeties... so of course it was a longer-shot double upset (bet 55 in my list... I only covered up to bet 28). And then a kadoatie stole another 5k from me. Because JS. (I blame everything on JS nowadays...)

Bah. I knew go was going down to Buck today. I pulled the Buck bets up from way down on my list as it was. Should've been heavier on Buck than Goo, I guess. Hindsight's 20-20 though, oh well.

My bets:
P(6:10-36:10): 92%
EV: 0.68-1.12

Bets:
(Orvinn, Fed) x (Fair, Buck, Tail)
Goo x (Fair, Tail)
(Scurvy, Young) x Goo x Buck

Note: I'm hoping the 3:1s in the positive arenas move to 4:1; if they do, all bets will be positive.

If you'd like to skip the more negative bets, use this set instead:
P(12:10-36:10): 50%
EV: 0.98-1.12

(Orvinn, Goo) x (Fair, Buck)
(Scurvy, Black, Young) x Goo x (Fair, Buck)

Or maybe just not bet today... There's a pretty big chance you'll lose today, with not a lot of room for gain.

Going a little on the riskier side:

(Goo, Orvinn) x (Fair, Buck, Tail)
Bonnie x (Goo, Orvinn) x (Fair, Buck)

ETA: 12:10

I also won 12:10. It's funny, I often feel disappointed on days like today for hurting my average, even though it increases my NP. I'm trying to focus on the NP - and remember that about half my winnings fall below the average (and a 12 brings it down a lot less than a 0 does!).

Edit:
P(16:10-80:10): 53%
EV: 1.29-2.84

Bets:
(Goo, Bonnie) x Ned x Scurvy x (Ed, Luck)
Goo x Buck x Scurvy x (Ed, Luck)
Bonnie x Buck x Scurvy x Ed
Goo x Ned x Scurvy x (HC - Squire) x Ed

You could omit the 3 boosters (last line) and replace with Goo Ned Scurvy Young, Goo Ned Tail Ed, and Goo Ned Scurvy (P(win)=59%).

Playing it relatively safe. Relatively. Not 100% happy with this set, but what can you do? Sometimes I wish we could have 15 bets instead...

Goo x Ned x Scurvy x (Ed, Young, Luck)
Goo x Ned x Stuff
Goo x Buck x Scurvy
Goo x Ned x (Tail, Peg, Black)
Bonnie x (Buck, Ned) x Scurvy

ETA: 52:10
Wou'dve been 104:10 if I hadn't been a tad iffy about Scurvy...but that would've been way below my max bet, so I didn't bother, and left Scurvy out. Nice to catch Stuff on an upset, though!

0:10
Wish I'd gone with my safer alternatives (I would have at least recouped most of my money at 8:10). Congrats, Pickles!

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