Food Club

[Siniri]

P(24:10-108:10): 47% (additional 5% chance of 8:10)
EV: 1.76-2.30

Bets:
(Fran, Puff) x Goo x Buck x (Scurvy, Ed, Young)
(Fran, Puff) x Tail x Buck x Scurvy
Fran x Goo x Stripe x Scurvy
Goo x Buck x Scurvy

Kind of risky, but could be a very nice win if I do win. It's basically a coin flip.

[Pickles]

Fran x Goo x Buck x (Scurvy, Ed, Young)
Fran x Tail x Buck x Scurvy
Squire x Goo x Buck x Scurvy
Squire x Tail x Buck
Goo x Buck x (Young, Ed)
Goo x Stripe x Scurvy
Tail x Buck x Scurvy

Probably could've included a bet on Puff...but Squire is only a 5:1, and he still hasn't won in over a month. Similar to Siniri...it's a toss up today!

ETA: 36:10 on the Goo x Stripe x Scurvy.

[Siniri]

Meh. Definitely did not think Stuff was a risk. He's won way too often at 13:1 lately! Busted.

ETA: New bets:

P(12:10-64:10): 80%
EV: 1.59-2.27

Bets:
Goo x (Puff, Orvinn)
Goo x Scurvy x (all in TI; all in HH)

Relatively safe, boring day... except it's the end of the month, and as we've seen with Stuff's ridiculous number of 1:13 wins, anything can happen at the end of the month.

ETA: 20:10

Last edited by Siniri on Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:38 am, edited 1 time in total.

[Pickles]

Goo x (Stuff, Puff, Orvinn)
Goo x (all in TI) x Scurvy
Goo x Scurvy x (Stripe, Buck)
Squire x Scurvy

Not 10 betting on Goo, just because I don't like 10-betting. Watch, Ed or Peg will win now...but I really wanted to cover Stuff, just in case he pulls another ridiculous 1:13 win.

ETA: 20:10

[Siniri]

P(16:10-72:10): 47%
EV: 1.30-2.30

Bets:
Goo x (Peg, Ned, Tail) x (Fed, Young) x Fran
Goo x Tail x Fed x Black
Bonnie x (Peg, Ned, Tail) x Fran

I needed about 20 bets to cover everyone I wanted to. Today is a coin toss.

[Pickles]

Bonnie x (All in TI)
Goo x (Peg, Ned, Squire)
Goo x Tail x (Fran, Black)
Stripe x Tail

Too many things to cover today. I decided to leave Fran and Fed out of most of my bets, just on a hunch. Means lower returns, but, eh, we'll see.

ETA: 12:10
Guess I should've left Fran in after all, but oh well.

[Siniri]

24:10

So glad I left HC out of those Bonnie safeties. Ironically, had Gooblah won, I'd have tanked. I'll take it.

[Pickles]

Fed x (All in HC) x Scurvy
(Ed, Puff, Capn) x Goo x Scurvy
Fed x Goo x (Fran, Black)
Fed x Black

Just wasn't feeling what the system said to do entirely today. Still not feeling particularly good about these bets. Probably means a bust. Guess we'll see.

[Siniri]

P(12:10-152:10): 47%
EV: 1.46-2.14

Bets:
Fed x (Goo, Peg) x Scurvy
Fed x Goo x (Fran, Black)
Fed x Goo x Scurvy x (SW - Stuff; Lagoon - Tail)

Going risky again. The 2s in the positive arenas look really strong, so they're bound to be upset... maybe.

[Pickles]

52:10! Apparently my gut was wrong...but putting Squire in was the right thing to do (finally!)

If I'd started a hold on the 25th (in order to attempt for a trophy on the 1st), I think I'd be in pretty good shape...but since I already have the gold trophy, I don't do holds.


ETA: Odds look *terrible* today. I really *shouldn't* be betting, because it's more than likely going to bust.

Follow with care:
Ned x (Black, Tail, Peg)
Ned x Young x (Goo, Buck)
Black x (Goo, Buck, Fair)
Tail x (Goo, Buck)

[Siniri]

P(9:10-18:10): 80+%
EV: terrible (some negative bets)

Bets:
Black
Tail x (Goo, Buck)
(SW - Stuff; Scurvy, Bonnie; Buck, Goo) x Young

Meh. Technically quite a few of the Young Sproggie bets are negative, but as long as we don't have the 20th 13:1 winner in fewer days, I should win more than I put in. Recommended not to follow.

Alternate set (range 8:10-24:10):
(Black, Tail) x (Goo, Buck)
Young x (SW - Stuff, HH - Squire)

Last edited by Siniri on Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[Pickles]

Heh. I love how the odds are still pretty bad, yet we're both betting anyways.

[Siniri]

I've only skipped betting once or twice due to terrible odds. My unsorted spreadsheet lists the odds for the 5-pirate bets right after the single-pirate bets, and I've never seen their EVs so low: most were in the 0-3 NP range (and the "break-even" point is over 10k NP - placing those bets would be worse odds than many lotteries).

My first 3 bets are positive, and I think at least a few others are... so the whole set is probably (barely) positive (I was too lazy to scroll down that far in my spreadsheet; I took a more conventional approach today, rather than 10-betting upsets).

[Pickles]

Lucked out with a 12:10 on Tail x Buck. Considering I was expecting a bust, I'm not complaining.

[Siniri]

Ditto. It's funny, days like today feel like a loss because they pull my long-term average down... but really, I won more NP than I bet, so it's still a win!