Pink Poogle Toy Forum

P(24:10-108:10): 47% (additional 5% chance of 8:10)
EV: 1.76-2.30

Bets:
(Fran, Puff) x Goo x Buck x (Scurvy, Ed, Young)
(Fran, Puff) x Tail x Buck x Scurvy
Fran x Goo x Stripe x Scurvy
Goo x Buck x Scurvy

Kind of risky, but could be a very nice win if I do win. It's basically a coin flip.

Fran x Goo x Buck x (Scurvy, Ed, Young)
Fran x Tail x Buck x Scurvy
Squire x Goo x Buck x Scurvy
Squire x Tail x Buck
Goo x Buck x (Young, Ed)
Goo x Stripe x Scurvy
Tail x Buck x Scurvy

Probably could've included a bet on Puff...but Squire is only a 5:1, and he still hasn't won in over a month. Similar to Siniri...it's a toss up today!

ETA: 36:10 on the Goo x Stripe x Scurvy.

Meh. Definitely did not think Stuff was a risk. He's won way too often at 13:1 lately! Busted.

ETA: New bets:

P(12:10-64:10): 80%
EV: 1.59-2.27

Bets:
Goo x (Puff, Orvinn)
Goo x Scurvy x (all in TI; all in HH)

Relatively safe, boring day... except it's the end of the month, and as we've seen with Stuff's ridiculous number of 1:13 wins, anything can happen at the end of the month.

ETA: 20:10

Goo x (Stuff, Puff, Orvinn)
Goo x (all in TI) x Scurvy
Goo x Scurvy x (Stripe, Buck)
Squire x Scurvy

Not 10 betting on Goo, just because I don't like 10-betting. Watch, Ed or Peg will win now...but I really wanted to cover Stuff, just in case he pulls another ridiculous 1:13 win.

ETA: 20:10

P(16:10-72:10): 47%
EV: 1.30-2.30

Bets:
Goo x (Peg, Ned, Tail) x (Fed, Young) x Fran
Goo x Tail x Fed x Black
Bonnie x (Peg, Ned, Tail) x Fran

I needed about 20 bets to cover everyone I wanted to. Today is a coin toss.

Bonnie x (All in TI)
Goo x (Peg, Ned, Squire)
Goo x Tail x (Fran, Black)
Stripe x Tail

Too many things to cover today. I decided to leave Fran and Fed out of most of my bets, just on a hunch. Means lower returns, but, eh, we'll see.

ETA: 12:10
Guess I should've left Fran in after all, but oh well.

24:10

So glad I left HC out of those Bonnie safeties. Ironically, had Gooblah won, I'd have tanked. I'll take it.

Fed x (All in HC) x Scurvy
(Ed, Puff, Capn) x Goo x Scurvy
Fed x Goo x (Fran, Black)
Fed x Black

Just wasn't feeling what the system said to do entirely today. Still not feeling particularly good about these bets. Probably means a bust. Guess we'll see.

P(12:10-152:10): 47%
EV: 1.46-2.14

Bets:
Fed x (Goo, Peg) x Scurvy
Fed x Goo x (Fran, Black)
Fed x Goo x Scurvy x (SW - Stuff; Lagoon - Tail)

Going risky again. The 2s in the positive arenas look really strong, so they're bound to be upset... maybe.

52:10! Apparently my gut was wrong...but putting Squire in was the right thing to do (finally!)

If I'd started a hold on the 25th (in order to attempt for a trophy on the 1st), I think I'd be in pretty good shape...but since I already have the gold trophy, I don't do holds.


ETA: Odds look *terrible* today. I really *shouldn't* be betting, because it's more than likely going to bust.

Follow with care:
Ned x (Black, Tail, Peg)
Ned x Young x (Goo, Buck)
Black x (Goo, Buck, Fair)
Tail x (Goo, Buck)

P(9:10-18:10): 80+%
EV: terrible (some negative bets)

Bets:
Black
Tail x (Goo, Buck)
(SW - Stuff; Scurvy, Bonnie; Buck, Goo) x Young

Meh. Technically quite a few of the Young Sproggie bets are negative, but as long as we don't have the 20th 13:1 winner in fewer days, I should win more than I put in. Recommended not to follow.

Alternate set (range 8:10-24:10):
(Black, Tail) x (Goo, Buck)
Young x (SW - Stuff, HH - Squire)

Heh. I love how the odds are still pretty bad, yet we're both betting anyways.

I've only skipped betting once or twice due to terrible odds. My unsorted spreadsheet lists the odds for the 5-pirate bets right after the single-pirate bets, and I've never seen their EVs so low: most were in the 0-3 NP range (and the "break-even" point is over 10k NP - placing those bets would be worse odds than many lotteries).

My first 3 bets are positive, and I think at least a few others are... so the whole set is probably (barely) positive (I was too lazy to scroll down that far in my spreadsheet; I took a more conventional approach today, rather than 10-betting upsets).

Lucked out with a 12:10 on Tail x Buck. Considering I was expecting a bust, I'm not complaining.

Ditto. It's funny, days like today feel like a loss because they pull my long-term average down... but really, I won more NP than I bet, so it's still a win!