Pink Poogle Toy Forum

Gambit: Goo Buck Scurvy Peg Bonnie
VH: 28:10
P(16:10-88:10): 70%
EV: 2.10-2.60 (with a 0.89 on Black)

Bets:
Goo x Buck x (Peg, Black, Capn)
Fed x Buck x Fran
Goo x (Tail, Fair) x Fran
Goo x Buck x Fran x (all in TI)

Added in the 13:1 Black booster instead of the base bet because he looked second strongest in his arena.

Goo x Buck x (Peg, Black, Capn)
Fed x Buck x (Fran, Peg)
Goo x (Tail, Fair) x Fran
Goo x Buck x Fran x (Bonnie, Young, Luck)

ETA: Puff did me in. Busted. Cost me a 48:10. Ah well.

*sigh* Should have covered Puff instead of Black. Busted as well.

Wow. Today looks *terrible* All yellow arenas. And most of the 2:1's are way down on the list of recommendations. Deviating a bit, and putting in some Ed bets, but I'm counting on busting. I'd recommend not betting today.

(Squire, Tail) x (Orvinn, Young, Peg)
(All in Lagoon) x Ed x Fair

Gambit: Goo Squire Orvinn Bonnie Black
no hold

Bets:
(all in HH) x (Capn, Tail)
(Buck, Fair) x (Squire)

Breaking from my system. Recommended not to bet, but I couldn't resist. (My system recommended long-shot double safeties; I chose to go with a more cohesive set.)

12:10

If I'd followed, I'd've hit the following:
Orvinn x Black
Tail x Orvinn x Lack
Tail x Orvinn

*headdesk*

28:10

I also missed out on at least a 54:10 (Orvinn x Black was the first bet on my list, and it was one I had chosen for my set... until I couldn't narrow it to ten bets, needed to leave, and decided to go with a safe-and-easy set instead). Oh, well. At least I'm ahead for the day! Can't really complain on a no-positive-arena day.

Today is a special day. With this set, at the current odds, you shouldn't lose:

(Peg, Orvinn, Capn)
Scurvy x (Fair, Black, Luck)
Scurvy x Goo x (All in HH)

Will edit my bets in in a few.

ETA: My set:
Young x Scurvy x Fran x (All in HC)
Young x Scurvy x (Luck, Fair)
Young x (Orvinn, Capn, Peg) x Goo
Puff x Scurvy x Goo

Feeling 99% sure I'll bust today. I've got a bad feeling about Ed and Stuff, but...eh. Oh well, if I do.

Gambit: Puff Scurvy Fran Luck Tail
no hold
P(24:10-88:10): 44%
EV: 1.25-2.18

Bets:
Ed x Scurvy x (Fran, Fed) x Goo
Young x Scurvy x Fed x Goo
Puff x Scurvy x Goo
Young x Scurvy x (Goo, Luck)
Young x Scurvy x Fran x Goo x (all in HH)

Glad I left Fran out on my Orvinn safety! 44:10 today!

Busted. Didn't cover Orvinn or Bonnie (though I did have the one TI-less safety).

New day: Five positive arenas with 2:1s at 58%-64%. Enticingly dangerous. Dangerously enticing.

Gambit: Tail Fed Fair Stripe Ed
no hold
P(16:10-160:10): 47%
EV: 2.18-2.80

Bets:
Goo x (Fed; Fair) x Stripe x Ed
(Tail, Ned, Goo; Fed) x Scurvy x Stripe x Ed
Tail x Fed x Scurvy x Ed
Goo x Scurvy x Ed x (Fed; Bonnie)
Goo x Fed x Scurvy x Stripe

Flipping a coin.

Yeah, today looks like a trap. Still betting, though.

Goo x Scurvy x Stripe x (All in HH)
Goo x (Fair, Orvinn) x Stripe x Ed
Goo x Scurvy x Bonnie x Ed
(Ned, Tail) x Scurvy x Stripe x Ed
Tail x Fed x Stripe x ed

ETA: 72:10 Woot!!

16:10

I had Luck in my winning bet... but then my overall P(win) was too low, so I switched things up, only to end up with the exact same overall P(win). But I had to run and didn't have time to switch it back, even though I wanted to. It seems like every time I've zigged in FC this week, the pirates have zagged. *sigh*

New day: Rushing my bets again. Hopefully I zig with the pirates today.

Gambit: Ed Orvinn Ned Young Tail
no hold
P(8:10-42:10): 88%
EV: 1.20-1.65

Bets:
(Luck, Ned) x (Tail, Buck)
Stripe x Buck
Goo x (Tail, Fed)
(Lagoon - Stuff) x Goo x Buck

The two positive arenas seem really close today; hopefully I covered the right combo of upsets (though a slight 8:10 loss with no upsets would still be better than a bust).

Basically taking the first 10 bets without boosters. If it turns out to be a 2's day, I bust, and oh well. I don't have the energy to think about this a lot today, so I'm betting quickly, then taking a nap while the kids do!

(Luck, Ned, Stripe) x (Buck, Tail)
(Luck, Ned, Goo) x Fed
Goo x Tail

ETA: 14:10 Not bad for it being a meh day for me this afternoon.

14:10 as well

New day:
Gambit: Buck Goo Fed Scurvy Black
no hold
P(8:10-48:10): 57%
EV: 1.18-1.73

Bets:
Buck x Fed x (Scurvy, Tail) x (Stripe, Black)
Ed x Fed x Scurvy x Black
(Buck, Ed) x Scurvy x (Stripe, Black)
Fran x Scurvy x Black

Blargh. So many 3's, it's impossible to cover everything and still have a decent chance at a good win. Crossing fingers...