Pink Poogle Toy Forum

Slightly riskier set, but Ed is showing up high today. If Goo x Buck wins, I won't win as much as Siniri's set will...but...I'm going with it.

Fed x (Buck, Ed)
Goo x (All in HC) x (Buck, Ed)

ETA: Busted due to the double 13:1 upsets...

Also busted.

P(12:10-20:10): 79%
EV: 1.05-1.42

Bets:
Goo x (Buck, Scurvy; Ed, Tail; all in HC)
Luck x (Buck, Scurvy)

High P of mediocrity.

So far, this has been quite a NOvember. *sigh*

Somewhat blindly following today, with a couple of safeties:
Fed
(Buck, Scurvy) x (Goo, Luck)
(Buck, Scurvy) x Goo x (Puff, Orvinn)
Goo x Puff

ETA: DAQ isn't updating the odds. Just noticed that before starting bets, and reconsidered things:

(Black; Capn) x (Goo, Luck)
(Buck, Scurvy) x Goo x Capn
(Buck, Scurvy) x Luck
Goo x (Puff, Orvinn)

ETA2: 14:10 on Buck x Luck. Clearly the added Luck bets were the right way to go...I just picked the wrong ones. Ah well! Still came out positive for the day!

Yeah, Daq is updating irregularly (though they are often slightly off - I think they usually update about every 15 or 30 minutes).

I also got 14:10. Too bad you didn't pick the two long shots in HC instead of splitting across arenas; that would have been a nice win!

DAQ used to update almost right on the half hour...and was fairly accurate...but...now, I'm not sure if/when it's updating at all.

Mostly following straight today, but including a stuff safety instead of the straight Buck x Goo

(Buck, Scurvy) x Fran
Scurvy x Goo
(All in Shipwreck; Squire, Orvinn) x Buck x Goo
Fair x Buck x Fran

P(12:10-60:10): 81%
EV: 1.65-1.92

Bets:
(Buck, Scurvy) x (Goo, Fran)
(SW - Stuff; TI - Peg) x Buck x Goo

Approximately 1/3 chance of a small (<20:10) win, 1/3 chance of 20:10, and 1/6 chance of good win (>40:10).

...And the smallest win won. *sigh* At least it's a win, right?

Same here. 12:10
I'm kicking myself a bit because the *next* bet on my list was Orvinn x Buck x Fran. Ah well.

Gambit: Fed Luck Buck Fair Goo
no hold
P(16:10-104:10): 65%
EV: 2.26-2.79

Bets:
Fran x Buck x Goo x (Fed; all in HC)
(Luck, Fran) x (Buck, Ed) x Goo
Stripe x Buck x Goo

Today looks promising... Let's just hope Neopets gives us a nice birthday present.

Almost identical to Siniri's, but with a couple minor changes.

Fran x Buck x Goo x ( all in HC)
Fran x Buck x Tail
Fran x Ed x Goo
Luck x (Buck, Ed) x Goo
Stripe x Buck x Goo
Stripe x Ed

ETA: 24:10

I also got 24:10

P(8:10-42:10): 93%
EV: 1.05-1.38

Bets:
Goo x (TI - Squire; all in HC)
Luck
Scurvy x (Stripe, Buck)

I skipped the non-13 HH boosters for the similar-EV HC boosters. If you wanted to go riskier, you could skip the Luck and Scurvy safeties and 10-bet Goo (with TI - Squire, HH - Capn, and all in HC). Regardless, the overall P(mediocrity) is high.

Meh. Today looks pretty dull. Ended up with the same set as Siniri.

ETA: Double Meh. 4:10.


Today's set looks equally meh.

Ed x Tail
Buck x (Scurvy, Luck)
Buck x Tail x (All in HC; Ned, Orvinn, Black)

Also 4:10 yesterday thanks to a 13:1 upset in the booster arena (I covered a 12:1 - why couldn't he have won instead? Grr...)

P(12:10-90:10): 67%
EV: 1.30-2.05

Bets:
Buck x (Tail, Scurvy)
Ed x Tail
(Goo; Ned) x (Buck, Ed) x Tail
Buck x Tail x Black
Goo x Buck x Tail x (Ned, Black)

I have a reasonable shot of winning something, so I'm going a bit riskier/unorthodox today. Hoping it pays off.

Edit: Well, it would have paid off at either 36:10 or 90:10, but once again NOvember told me NO with another 13:1 upset. *sigh*

New day, new bets. Hopefully it's better than yesterday (it can't be any worse, right?).

P(20:10-36:10): 68%
EV: 1.74-2.11

Bets:
Buck x (Fed, Scurvy)
(all in Lagoon) x Buck x Fed
(Fran, Goo) x Buck x (Fed, Scurvy)

A 2/3 chance of doubling my money (or better)? Yes, please! Let's just hope it actually works today...

Not sold on Buck today....and since it's NOvember...here's my set:

(Black, Orvinn) x Fed
(Buck, Black) x Scurvy
Buck x Fed x (All in Lagoon; Fran, Goo)

ETA: 45:10 on the Black x Scurvy. Shame Scurvy went back down to a 5 before closing, but I'm not complaining! I'll take actually nailing a double upset anytime!

Because I probably won't have time tomorrow, I'm going to have to put in bets tonight, so here's my set:

(Orvinn, Stripe, Capn) x Goo x Tail
Bonnie x (Scurvy, Ned) x Tail
Bonnie x Goo x (Luck, Puff)
Bonnie x Goo x Tail x (Fran, Fed, Buck)

Busted. The Black single safety was bet 27 on my list, and he actually looked pretty weak, too... *sigh* Oh, well. Even if I'd covered the single safety, it's unlikely I'd have covered the double.

New bets:
P(8:10-88:10): 64%
EV: 1.58-2.06

Bets:
Bonnie x (Goo, Ned, Scurvy) x Tail
(Capn, Stripe) x Goo x Tail
Bonnie x Goo x (Fed, Buck)
Bonnie x Goo x Tail x (Fran, Fed, Buck)

Edit: 32:10, woot! I added those Tail-less boosters as a hedge against Tail getting upset, since safeties in that arena had such low EV, and it paid off.