Pink Poogle Toy Forum

Oh, my reference to the odds changing was about the fact that your win from two days ago was bet 3 according to the system... Buck was way below Goo when I bet; I considered boostering him, but the system told me not to (he must have shifted to 4:1 after I bet...). (Yesterday, Stripe was at 6 when I bet and obviously closed at 6, so I wasn't worried about that... just wish I'd trusted the system more.)

Anyway. New bets:
P(14:10-40:10): 65%
EV: 1.12-1.46

Bets:
(Buck, Fed) x Goo x (Stripe, Bonnie)
(all in Lagoon) x Goo x Stripe
Scurvy x (Stripe, Bonnie)

Edit: 16:10 on the boostered safety. P, you didn't cover Bonnie at all? He looked really strong in his arena (just barely behind Stripey).

Edit 2 (new bets for 11/4):
P(24:10-88:10): 71%
EV: 2.45-2.72

Bets:
(Scurvy, Young) x Goo x (Fair, Stripe)
Peg x Goo x Fair
Scurvy x Buck x Fair
Scurvy x Goo x (all in HC) x Fair

Ditching the base bet of Scurvy x Goo x Fair to cover Scurvy x Buck x Stripe, otherwise, same as Siniri's. Will have to get them in in 20 minutes or so...

Young x Goo x (Fair, Stripe)
Scurvy x Goo x Stripe
Scurvy x Buck x (Fair, Stripe)
Scurvy x Goo x (all in HC) x Fair
Peg x Goo x Fair

ETA: Bah. Busted again. Wish I'd had more time to look and pay attention, I've had my eyes on Squire for the last couple days. Ah well. Here's hoping for a better tomorrow.

That was frustrating... I can't stand those 13:1 wins. Anyway:

P(10:10-56:10): 78%
EV: 1.14-1.35

Bets:
(Ed, Scurvy) x (Fran, Bonnie)
Scurvy x Luck
(Stripe, Buck) x Fran
Scurvy x (HC - Capn) x Fran

Edit: It was a 2sday... Been a while since one of those. Since I covered a lot of safeties, I only got 12:10.

New bets: As of right now, there's not a single positive pirate, so I recommend not betting today. If I have time, I'll reevaluate closer to the round's end.

I neglected to put in bets yesterday, and I'm kinda sorry that I did, because the set I had ready to go (and was distracted from) would've net me 24:10. Ah well.

Here's for today:
Fran x (Stripe, Cap) x Luck
Fran x Scurvy x Fair
(Ed, Stuff) x Scurvy x Luck
Fran x Scurvy x Luck x (Bonnie; All in HH)

P(36:10-104:10): 57%
EV: 2.70-3.44

Bets:
Fran x Scurvy x (Luck, Fair)
Fran x Stripe x Luck
Fran x Scurvy x Luck x (SW - Tail; all in HH)

I considered skipping the base bet for a Capn or Ed safety, but both are really weak for their P, so I couldn't justify sacrificing that much EV for a slightly higher overall P(win).

Well, following almost completely blindly paid off today. 52:10 on the Capn safety, whew!

ETA: Following almost blindly today again. Took ou tthe Goo boosters on a couple of bets, just to play it a little safer.

Buck x Scurvy x (all in HC) x Fed
Buck x (Fran, Tail) x (Fed, Peg)
Buck x Scurvy x Peg
Young x Scurvy x Fed

P(16:10-84:10): 59%
EV: 2.61-2.86

Bets:
Young x Scurvy x Goo x Fed
Buck x (Fran, Tail) x Goo x Fed
Buck x Scurvy x (all in HC) x Fed
Buck x Scurvy x Goo x Peg
Buck x (Fran, Tail) x Fed

40:10

Can't complain!

Also got 40:10

New day, new bets:
P(16:10-72:10): 64%
EV: 1.59-2.23

Bets:
Buck x Fran x (Black, Fed)
Buck x Goo x (Black, Peg)
Buck x (Capn, Ned) x Fed
(Scurvy, Fair) x Goo x Fed
Buck x Goo x (Luck, Tail) x Fed

Had to drop the base bet to cover one of the safeties... Betting kind of blind thanks to the Daq being down (though I was able to get the starting odds from the boards).

Daq! You're making me feel totally lost! Sigh. Also betting mostly blind. Modified some on hunches (took out boosters and covered more direct items), but....ugh.

(Fair, Buck, Scurvy) x Goo x Fed
Scurvy x Goo x Black
Scurvy x Fran x Fed
Buck x Fran x (Black, Peg, Fed)
Buck x Goo x (Black, Peg)

ETA: 28:10. Definitely not complaining!

Also 28:10. Finally up to a semi-respectable 44% for the month.

Meh. Still flying relatively blind, but here we go:

Bonnie x (Fed, Fran, Scurvy; Buck, Ed) x Goo
Ned x Fed x (Buck, Ed) x Goo
Ned x (Fran, Scurvy) x Ed x Goo
Ned x Fed x Ed x Stripe

P(16:10-72:10): 56%
EV: 1.97-2.82

Bets:
Ned x Fed x Buck x Goo
Ned x (Fran, Scurvy, Fed) x Ed x Goo
(Bonnie, Fair) x Fed x Ed x Goo
Ned x Fed x Ed x Stripe
(Fran, Fed) x Buck x Goo
Fran x Ed x Goo

Edit: Busted thanks to two different long shots winning.

New day, new bets! Daq is back, but they missed the starting odds. (You can find them on the Neoboards.)

I came up with two different sets and chose to go with the one with the higher minimum win. Hopefully I don't end up regretting it!

P(16:10-96:10): 78%
EV: 1.98-2.91

(Fair, Capn) x (Bonnie, Goo) x Scurvy
Fed x Bonnie x Scurvy
Ed x Scurvy
Fed x Goo x Scurvy x (all in HH)

The set I originally considered covers the Ed double safeties (not a good option for older accounts because of the 1M win limit per bet):

P(12:10-182:10): 78%
EV: 2.14-2.91

Bets:
(Fair, Capn, Fed) x (Bonnie, Goo, Ed) x Scurvy
Goo x Scurvy

Note the identical P(win) with wider range of possible outcomes (but 12:10 being the most likely at 31%). Given I only had to sacrifice a little EV, it seemed worth increasing that minimum win and reducing its probability.

Busted yesterday, ah well.

The first set Siniri posted is what I came up with, ironically.

(Fair, Capn) x (Bonnie, Goo) x Scurvy
Fed x Bonnie x Scurvy
Fed x Goo x Scurvy x (all in HH)
Ed x Scurvy

Although, I don't like 10-betting...but Scurvy looks like the most likely anyways.

ETA: 28:10

I would have gotten 28:10 with either set, so no harm, no foul.

P(14:10-48:10): 74%
EV: 1.66-2.02

Bets:
Goo x Ed
Fed x Buck
(Goo x Buck) x (all in TI, all in HC)

Boring set today. Hopefully it pays off decently.