Pink Poogle Toy Forum

18:10 on the double safety.

New bets:
P(20:10-112:10): 67%
EV: 2.08-2.40

Bets:
Scurvy x Goo x (Tail, Luck)
Buck x Goo x (Tail, Luck, Fran)
Buck x Stripe x Tail
Buck x Goo x Tail x (Black; TI - Bonnie)

Busted. Didn't trust Buck, but didn't trust Fed much, either. Ah well.

Splitting 50/05 on Buck/Scurvy today. A little less profit if one of them wins over the other, but I feel safer with this than covering the TI boosters.
(Scurvy, Buck) x Goo x (Tail, Luck, Fran)
Scurvy x Stripe
Buck x Stripe x Tail
Black x (Scurvy, Buck) x Goo x Tail

ETA: 20:10 on Buck x Goo x Luck

Got the same 20:10 on the safety. Can't complain about doubling my money!

New bets:
P(16:10-72:10): 54%
EV: 1.91-2.84

Bets:
Ed x Fran x Goo x (Buck, Luck) x Stripe
Young x Fran x Goo x Stripe
Ed x Puff x Goo x Stripe
Ed x Fran x Goo x Ned
Ed x Fran x (Scurvy, Goo; Buck) x Stripe
(Ed, Young) x Fair x Stripe

A lot of ways to win, but a lot of ways to lose...

Today's looks pretty crazy. Here goes:

Young x Fair x Stripe
Young x Fran x Goo x Stripe
Ed x Fran x Scurvy x Stripe
Ed x (Puff, Fair) x Goo x Stripe
Ed x Fair x (Ned, Stripe)
Ed x Fran x Goo x (Stripe, Ned, Orvinn)

I hope I covered enough bases. I purposefully left out any bets with HC to try and cover more bases. Here's hoping!

Apparently Pegleg brought a hollow leg and cheated his way to first in SW arena today, so no NP for me. I'm down to 84% for the month net profit... I need a few good wins to bring it back up.

Pegleg's hollow leg got me, too. Sigh.

P(24:10-88:10): 46%
EV: 1.85-2.94

Bets:
Goo x Buck x Fran x Ned x (Tail, Ed)
(Peg, Orvinn) x Buck x Fran x Tail
Goo x Scurvy x Fran x Tail
Goo x Buck x (Stripe, Fran) x Tail
Goo x Buck x Fran x (Ed, Bonnie)
Goo x Buck x Fran

It's a coin flip, but worth it in the long run because the expected payout is so high. (I'm a little worried about Blackbeard in SW. If you wanted to cover him, you could skip the last bet and replace it with Blackbeard x Buck x Fran (or even Blackbeard alone to be super-conservative, but the payout would only be 13:10).)

I'm taking Siniri's hunch about Black and replacing one of my bets with Black in it.

Goo x Buck x Fran x (Ed, Tail)
Goo x Buck x Bonnie
Goo x Buck x Stripe
Goo x Scurvy x (Stripe, Fran)
(Peg, Orvinn) x Buck x Fran x Tail
Peg x Buck x Stripe
Black x Fran

56:10 today. Whee! 314:150 for the month so far, so I'm guaranteed to at least break even (but hopefully I won't bust for the next 15 days... that would be awful).

Played it a little too safe, I guess. Only 28:10.

I'm not quite even for the month yet - only 260:150. Some months are better than others!

P(24:10-56:10): 58%
EV: 1.70-2.37

Bets:
Fed x Luck x Goo x Buck x Tail
Fed x Goo x (Buck, Fran, Young) x Tail
Bonnie x Goo x (Buck, Fran) x Tail
Fed x Goo x (Peg, Capn, Tail)
Fed x Scurvy x Tail

Slightly better odds today; it's a little better than a coin flip, but still fairly risky. We'll just have to wait and see...

Fed x Goo x (Tail, Peg, Capn)
Fed x Goo x Buck x (Tail, Peg, Capn)
Bonnie x Goo x (Tail, Peg)
Puff x Goo x Tail
Fed x Scurvy x Tail

A minor tweak here and there to cover Scurvy.

Sigh. Covered Bonnie, covered Scurvy...but not together. Bah! Busted *again.* Definitely not the best month so far.

I also busted yesterday (I covered a Bonnie double safety, but with the wrong extra pirate).

P(12:10-52:10): 71%
EV: 1.67-2.35

New bets:
(Fed, Young, Buck) x Goo x Ed
Fed x Goo x Capn
Scurvy x Goo x (Stripe, Capn)
Scurvy x (all in Lagoon) x Goo x Ed

I really hope there aren't any negative odd shifts in Lagoon... If anyone in Lagoon is at 2:1 when you place your bets, you could choose to change the boosters to (all in HH except Orvinn) instead of (all in Lagoon) and then add in the base bet (Scurvy x Goo x Ed) to keep the minimum win at 12:1 (instead of 8:1 - though there's still a slight chance of an 8:1 if Orvinn upsets HH).

Today's one of those rare days where you can bet and not lose.
Here's that set:
Peg (13)
Fair (13)
Puff (13)
Goo x (Fed, Buck, Young) (14, 26, 18)
Goo x Scurvy x (All in Lagoon) (24, 12, 12, 16)

Will edit to add my bets in in a few.

ETA: Doing the same as Siniri today.

ETA2: Dag nab, Puff! Busted. Again. Sigh. This is just NOT my week.

Someone was Stuffing food down his shirt. FC really needs to rein in these pirates so they play fair. *sigh* Total bust. Should have gone with P's 100%-profit set.

New bets (sorry for their lateness; you can safely make them between 2:15 and ~2:45pm NST; the new round will start after 2:51pm NST):

P(24:10-72:10): 59%
EV: 2.23-2.43

Bets:
Luck x Goo x Scurvy x (Buck, Tail; Fed)
(Buck, Tail) x Luck x Fed x Goo x Scurvy
(Luck, Bonnie) x Goo x (Scurvy, Ed)
Young x Goo x Scurvy

Today looks as good as yesterday and the day before did... But what are the odds of getting three tails in a row? Well, actually, once you've already gotten the first two tails, the odds of the third tails are the same as always (59%, in this case)... Still, my luck has to change eventually.