Pink Poogle Toy Forum

Yep. 24:10. Nice!

Early bets today.
Similar with one minor change:
Fed x Goo
Buck x Bonnie
Buck x Goo x (All in SW, All in HC)

I nearly got rid of the "base bet" to cover the Fed Bonnie safety, but I figured 75% was safe enough, especially since Bonnie looked really week (Fed was a real threat). Kicking myself for getting greedy for that extra 4:10...

Same here. I thought briefly about covering the Fed/Bonnie, but I was in a hurry, and didn't want to mess with it. Ah well. I was bound to bust sometime soon, as I had a streak of 12 days without busting.

I just wish I'd written it as an alternative for Blue; he might have gone the more conservative route and won 49:10 instead of busting (if he had time to bet today... I hope he didn't.)

Bets based on my system:
P(8:10-84:10): 52%
EV: 1.66-1.76

Bets:
(Ed, Fed, Fair) x Scurvy x Goo x Luck
Ed x Young x Goo x Luck
Ed x Scurvy x Goo x Orvinn
Ed x Scurvy x (Peg, Luck)
Ed x (Capn, Young) x Luck
Fed x Scurvy x Luck

Honestly, though, any pirate could win Lagoon and HC, and I don't see a way to cover all the possibilities safely. Since I'm in it for the long haul, I went ahead and bet... but you may want to skip if you're averse to losing NP.

(Ed, Fed, Fair) x Scurvy x Goo x Luck
Ed x Young x Luck
Ed x Young x Goo x Luck
Ed x Capn x Luck
Ed x Scurvy x Peg
Ed x Scurvy x (Fran, Bonnie) x Luck
Ed x Scurvy x Goo x Orvinn

Meh. Not sure how I feel about them, but there they are.

ETA: Busted. Covered Young, covered Peg, but not together. Ah well...

I did not have the opportunity to bet yesterday/today.

However, never feel bad if any bets do not work out. It is betting after all - Nothing is ever guaranteed, and not every day will have an upside.

I also busted yesterday. Had I placed the top 10 bets in my system, I'd have gotten 182:10 with Ed x Young x Peg, but that bet only had a 1% chance of winning, and my overall chance of winning was too low with that set. Ah, well.

New bets:
P(8:10-120:10): 74%
EV: 2.40-3.25

Bets:
goo x (fran, scurvy, fed) x ed x buck
goo x scurvy x ed x tail
goo x scurvy x bonnie x buck
goo x (fran, scurvy, fed) x buck
goo x (fran, scurvy) x tail

Looks even better than yesterday... but look how yesterday turned out.

Mine are potentially a bit more of a long shot. Guess we'll see. I don't like it when the EV goes over 3. It tends to mean a bust for me. So...I took a few out and changed things up a bit.

Goo x Scurvy x (All in TI) x Buck
Goo x (Scurvy, Fran) x Tail
Goo x (Fed, Fran) x Buck
Fed x Tail
Ned x Scurvy x Buck

ETA: 16:10. Not the best, but at least some profit!

24:10

At 136:60 for the month so far, even despite the last two days of busts.

New bets:
P(8:10-84:10): 63%
EV: 1.48-2.20

Bets:
Goo x (Black, Buck) x Fran
Goo x (Fed, Buck) x Peg
Goo x Fed x (Luck, Fran)
Goo x Fed x (Luck, Fran) x Bonnie
Goo x Buck x Fran x Bonnie
Goo x Fed x Fran x Ed

Got 'em in today

Goo luck all!

36:10. Blue managed to skip the busts and hit the good days!

Bah. Had to get my bets in at the last minute, and they weren't so hot. Busted. Ah well. Hoping to get mine in tomorrow morning. Company in town = craziness.

Sweet! 36:10, and I even remembered to collect my winning this afternoon as well. (I set a meeting reminder on my calendar. Granted it was for 15:30 NST this afternoon and I didn't get around to it until 18:00... But hey, i got it.. )

Call it complete dumb luck that I failed to place bets on the bad days. I guess working far too much has its advantages?

P(8:10-44:10): 89% (P(8:10)=19%, P(0:10)=11%, P(12+:10)=70%)
EV: 1.34-1.69

Bets:
(Goo, Fran) x (Buck, Squire, Capn)
Goo x (all in Lagoon) x Buck

I feel like HH is actually fairly safe, so I wanted to skip all the double safeties and the Goo-Capn safety in favor of covering Goo x Buck x (all in TI), but I followed my system instead. If you want to go riskier... (If you don't want to lose any NP on the Fran single safety, you could cover Fran x Buck x (all in Lagoon), but you'd have to drop four other bets to do it. Anyone could win in any of the 3 booster arenas... See previous alternative for which 4 bets I recommend dropping. To me, it's not worth "wasting" 4 bets to avoid an 8:10 partial loss.)