Altador Plot #61 (Read The FAQ!)

[Lovelogard]

Has anyone ever wondered where the constallation would be? I mean... I have two choices:One, at the scribbles behind The Dancer, Two:At Altador's statue.

[professorelite]

In response to those who said the next step is not the last:
I never said it was... that's why the lines extend beyond the next step. There've been 13 released steps thusfar and my chart extends to 16, with the exception of my previous forecast which went up to 15.


In response to those who said I gave a wide prediction:
I just have 4 equations that point to 4 likely dates... the two that most closely match up also are the two most complex ones which almost overlap in prediction. Given how close they line up (really only a matter of hours; well within margin of error) I feel 50% confident that the next step is going to be on June 8-11th. I put the other prediction to show that this forecasting is never an exact thing. You don't see weathermen on TV trying to go beyond a week in advance. With the other equations, I can give a 90% confidence that its between those two extremes. I myself didn't really believe in the 5th order polynomial until it came true with negligible error.

But this plot should be over by June!
Neopets have been very late many times in the past... as a matter of fact this Lutari plot was promised to be released LAST winter... they're already 5 motnhs late... why not a few more weeks?


Thanks btjaus and Arkra for defending me I know I sounded like an attention hog but it hurt my feelings when after all that time I put into it and I got ignored

[cslewislover]

So no one has found anything in the archives yet? It looks like it's been rifled through; it wasn't like that before, was it? I mean when we got to go in it to look for the meepit.

[Officer 1BDI]

I think those books have always been lying on the floor and shelftops. My memory could be off, though. It's not exactly photographic.

[btjaus]

Don't worry professorelite, many of us have noticed and ooh-aahed over your impressive equation.

To those who say that TNT doesn't put that much thought into it - that's the whole point. professorelite isnt trying to find the equation they're using - obviously they wouldn't bother making it that complx, he is simply trying to interpret their previous behaviour, and make a model that accurately predicts the arrival of the next clue. It did so for the previous clue, and because TNT has to be on a deadline, they will probably quite closely adhere to it.

Of course, using mathematics to predict human behavious doesn't always work. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

I'd say unless you're talking about the average behaviour of a lot of people, it's very unlikely to work. Too many factors involved we don't have a clue about, many of which may not be constant throughout the plot. Looking at things inductively and assigning patterns that we know aren't really how it works based on as small an amound as 11 experiments is pretty much a guessing game, and without being as unspecific as 'may 30th to june 10th' not particulary likely to predict anything.

I suppose it's amusing though.

I'll agree to a point that predicting human behaviour using simple mathematics is folly, at best, and it's true that using an equation - probably formed with regression - isn't exactly high powered. However - maths has shown to give suitably accurate predictions of basic behaviour, especially in the case of criminal behaviour, eg. location of serial killer 'base of operations' according to the spread pattern of their crimes - because serial killers try to make locations 'random', they have them spread out - which is inherently unrandom - that is to say, a random sequence would have the 'crimes' in some cases very close together - something a human serial killer would never risk.

While that all sounds rather macabre, I think there is, suprisingly, some merit in the use of the equation. First, there would be quite a few people involved in the plot, not a huge amount of people, yes, but several nonetheless. Second of all, the issue of deadlines - if you have certain amount of work to do by a certain time, you break it into parts - in this case, 12 constellations. They have quite clearly broken them up evenly in the early part of the plot, and took slightly longer with the latest few.

Because of the dynamics of the group, completing work for a deadline, I feel that the predictive equation has more merit than people give it credit for. Just look how good the previous model predicted the latest clue!

I'll put it out there - the next clue will be easily inside the upper and lower limits of professorlite's equation - probably quite close to his mid range prediction.

Besides, whats the harm in guessing?

[Antjie]

i quite like reading everyone's predictions and is jsut glad it aint me who have to do it... since maths aint my strong point.
Some is funny, some is serious, some really believe in it and others take it wiht a pinsh of salt.
For me, its pure entertainment in wondering how on earth some people get to some of their conclusions.
So professorelite, keep at it, but use another method that can make it sooner please

[Shadow_Twisted]

It is rather foolish for anyone to try to set a pattern to human behavior and more so for dealing with devices that can end up doing the fun little thing where they stop working. There are many technical aspects to setting up these plots that require an entire team of people to meet specific deadlines, which means that if the Lutari plot is complete but for one person's assignment, it is delayed. Therefore, anyone's prediction extending past the time frame of what has already past, is as good as anyone else's.

In response to the user who was saying about the squiggles behind the Dancer being a possible locale for the King's const., I've been saying that for awhile, but people DON'T LISTEN TO ME!!!!!

If all we get for all the constellations is an avatar, I'll be royally mad. How about an Altadorian PB? Pets in togas, Hooray!

Toga!Toga!Toga!Toga!Toga!Togha!Toga!Toga!

Oh, and did I mention TTTTTOOOOOGGGGGAAAAA!!!!!

An explanation of me:
Me+Coffee+Sugar+Chocolate+Good Topic=Gibberish

[mogster500]

I still think it's this Friday, no math required.

[spoonguardonline]

Yeah, I don't think that professorelite's graph is particularly useful (good though it is, and it is obvious that a lot of work has gone into it). I don't think Neopets is purposefully extending the plot updates more and more, proportionally in what looks like an x squared graph. Otherwise, if there were more parts to it, very soon we'd only be seeing one update a year! (Which may be what it feels like, but...)

I agree with whoever said that human nature can be predicted up to a point, but not very far, and I also agree with whoever said that they were waiting for a certain number of people to find their constellation, so, when the final plot piece comes out, they know that most people are there already.

And a theory as to the problems of anjuna and whoever else had to wait days to do their water plant. Maybe it could have been a minor glitch on Neopets, that some people were allocated water plants that didn't function as they should have. TNT noticed after a few days that people were struggling, changed it, and then you were able to do it, and celebrate.

[anjuna]

And a theory as to the problems of anjuna and whoever else had to wait days to do their water plant. Maybe it could have been a minor glitch on Neopets, that some people were allocated water plants that didn't function as they should have. TNT noticed after a few days that people were struggling, changed it, and then you were able to do it, and celebrate.

As comforting as that thought sounds, I was informed it was not a glitch.
I guess some of us just got an extremely bad luck variable. Maybe that graph also shows how hard it is for some people at the end plot stages.

[miz sparrow]

I don't think Neopets is purposefully extending the plot updates more and more, proportionally in what looks like an x squared graph. Otherwise, if there were more parts to it, very soon we'd only be seeing one update a year! (Which may be what it feels like, but...)

Wow... that is EXACTLY what I was going to say, spoon.

Although the graph is really impressive in terms of research and work put into it, I think what would be more useful would be speculation on where to look for the last hint(s). And possibly some sort of organized search party or something, like those awesome mystery pic people.

Of course, I'm not volunteering to head the brigade!

[Makuta_Neodude]

It is rather foolish for anyone to try to set a pattern to human behavior and more so for dealing with devices that can end up doing the fun little thing where they stop working. There are many technical aspects to setting up these plots that require an entire team of people to meet specific deadlines, which means that if the Lutari plot is complete but for one person's assignment, it is delayed. Therefore, anyone's prediction extending past the time frame of what has already past, is as good as anyone else's.

In response to the user who was saying about the squiggles behind the Dancer being a possible locale for the King's const., I've been saying that for awhile, but people DON'T LISTEN TO ME!!!!!

If all we get for all the constellations is an avatar, I'll be royally mad. How about an Altadorian PB? Pets in togas, Hooray!

Toga!Toga!Toga!Toga!Toga!Togha!Toga!Toga!

Oh, and did I mention TTTTTOOOOOGGGGGAAAAA!!!!!

An explanation of me:
Me+Coffee+Sugar+Chocolate+Good Topic=Gibberish

un-be-lievable. you can come up with ridiculously random nubmers for the library and then, later, post on a sugar high. i try not to do that.....
last time i did that:

-The Darkest Faerie was innocent. King Altador and her fell in love, but Jerdana, who loved Altador, was jealous. as in, Astronomy-President level jealous. so, she made up the Darkest Faerie game plot to frame the Darkest Faerie, but when Altador didn't like her anyway she went crazy. angrily, she destroyed the history. (ouch, that was almost a soap opera.)
-now, she has been posing as the President of the Astronomy Club, hoping to "find" the clues/constellations she set up. but she couldn't remember where they were, and then we come along and find them. that makes President Jerdana jealous. she's good at that. so, she gets madder and madder, and now she's left the club for a while. probably plotting...and when we find her constellation....what?
i ran out of conspiricy theory material. help me here...
anyway, what species is she? *runs off to check*

EDIT: she's an Aisha. so, some ear padding, more of a tail? she could be in a Blumaroo disquise...

yeah, i was sugar high then.

wait: under water weaving...the water plant...
wouldn't the baskets be wove with underwater plants?

again, sugar high. let this be a warning not to post when hyper.

[Cranberry]

I think we'll get a constellation tonight or tomorrow, and my prediction is based solely on the scientific fact that I am very busy and won't be here to do the next step right away. It's always worked out like this in the past. (*Grumbles about trying to look after a vaeolus while watching Veronica Mars with friends*)

[Officer 1BDI]

Hopefully it'll be Thursday or Friday, to give us the weekend. Preferrebly Thurdsay, in case something goes wrong and TNT needs to tweak the site/puzzle before Memorial Day weekend.

[Rauven]

hope NOT on thursday and friday, cause i'll be banging my head in a korn concert \m/

i was hoping more like saturday.
is it ok with you guys? (like it mattered)