Pink Poogle Toy Forum

Box 19 -- 750NP
Box 8 -- 35000NP
Box 17 -- 5000NP

1500
2500
10000
15000
25000

The Banker says: "The loss of the biggest number was significant; and that's what you get for greedery." It'd dropped: 7500NP

You will have to open three boxes if you decline this offer.

Hmm... because I'm stupid and just can't contain myself... I'll have to say no deal. =D

12
6
9

Box 12 -- 25000NP
Box 6 -- 1500NP
Box 9 -- 10000NP

—
2500
—
15000
—

At this point, you can either accept the deal of 6000NP or choose a box number. The amount in that box corresponds to how much you get.

The boxes left are 5 and 11.

*bum bum bum bum BUM*

Box 11. =D

Box 11 -- 2500NP

Urgh. Sorry 'bout that mate. I've got the heet where I've got all the vlaues on so if you don't believe me, I can scan it in.

Hope you enjoyed it; and I've worked out that one game takes about an hour. Don't quite have enough time for another tonight I'm afraid, but be online here at about 8pm tomorrow to play another game. The prize structure probably won't chance - I'm just hoping nobody wins more than 97500NP

@Kuge: Send me a link with a trade in for your prize...

If anyone wants anything explained, including deals then feel free to ask

And yes, alas, I am leaving. And no, alas (?), I'm not staying to hang about. Those more observant amongst you might have noticed my loss of moderating status (i.e. I moderate no boards.) I might pop by from tiem to time, but with exams-Uni-job-annihilation of earth timeline, it'll be the minority of the time

Nope nope, I believe you. =D

I just had fun playing. x)

Applicants for tomorrow's show can feel free to post here

Am I the only one who seems to think, given how Matt played this, that you should NEVER accept the deal?

If you were to open up your box at any given time, the expected amount you would find would be S(k)/T(k) where S(k) is the sum of all values of the remaining boxes and T(k) is the total number of remaining boxes. It figgures that if the bankers offer is less that the excepted value of the cash in your box, that you should reject and if the bankers offer is higher then you should accept. Every single time, Matt offered lower, so Kuge did the right then and rejected the deal every single time.

Or does the banker know how much is in Kugetsu's box, thus turning it into a game of phsycology as well as one of Math?

Nah, he had no idea which box I chose. It was only that low because I got rid of the highest score on my first go. If the highest score is still there, the deal that he gives is worth a lot more.

The game works on something called Utility Theory, Clucky. The problem with saying that is that you are assuming that a sum of money twice as great is worth twice as much to a person. Here's an example (if we were playing this for real money.)

There are two values left: The £250,000 and the 1p. You get offererd £100,000. By your logic, you shouldn't deal because the expected value is greater.

However, you have to remember that money starts to lose it's meaning at about £20,000. If you had to bet £20,000 on the flip of a coin, would you?

(Incidentally, a way to approximate this is to work out the root-mean-squared. That is, E(sqrt(X))^2 as this cancels out the dominance of the larger figures.)

You also have to remember that there are other factors affecting the board; the biggest one being the 'volatility' - basically how much the game will swing if you remove the top figure. In the final five, if you have left:

£250000; £1; 50p; 10p; 1p

then the offer will be lower than this game at the same point.

£100000; £50000; £35000; £20000; £15000

Because the 'volatility' is lower.

Also, another point to remember is that the banker doesn't always want someone to deal. By offering a low amount, you are drawing the player to carry on; and encouraging them to enter a round in which they will open a number of large numbers. I can give you a real life example for this (Trevor's game) His board was

1p; £10; £50; £35000; £250000

He got offered £9900. The banker knew the offer would have to shoot up were the quarter of a million to be left there, but he wanted to encourage Trevor to play onwards, becuase he knew there was a 60% chance that he'd take the largest number out

Although, I agree that I wouldn't have dealt at any of the boxes in this game, but just becuase of the unlucky selection. By taking out big numbers, the deal will stay low in comparison to the mean.

-

I'd also like to point out the reason I'd set the final offer as what i did. There were ten ways that the final two boxes could be arranged - I pitched the offer so h alf were above and half werre below.

Nifty

Erm...I think I get it...I'd like to play tomorrow!

I see. Point taken. Its sorta like how if we were to play the following game:

I flip a coin. Tails we stop playing. Heads I give you two dollars and flip again.
This time, I flip another coin. Tails we stop playing, heads I give you four dollars and flip again
Next time its 8 and flip again.
Then 16, 32, and so on.

If you do the math, you find that the expected return on the game is infinite. And thus you should play ANY amount for the honor to play this game with me. Of course, no one is gonna shell out a cool million to play such a game, even though given an infinite pocket book it would be in their best interest.

Of course, these are neopoints. The different between 100k nps and 1 np is also smaller than the difference between 100k dollars and 1 dollar

Anyone who wants to play, please speak up now. The first (non-Kugetsu) person to post gets to play

If no one else is going to bite, I will.

Great

The rules are earlier in the thread, so I prseume you've read them. The Game Board remains unchanged. The box system goes 5 int he first round, and 3 in each after that. List as many boxes as you want after each one

1
5
10
25
50
75
100
200
500
750
1000
1500
2500
5000
7500
10000
75000
20000
25000
35000
50000
100000

Good Luck!