Pink Poogle Toy Forum

16:10 today. Might've got a different set if I'd waited to put in bets, but hey, I came out ahead, so I'm not complaining!

ETA: Today's bets. Mostly following, but pulled a couple bets up higher in the list.

Goo x Bonnie
Goo x Ned x Bonnie
Puff x Buck
Puff x Ned x Buck
Goo x (Capn, Ned) x Buck
Goo x Buck x (All in HH)

P(12:10-117:10): 67% (with additional 21% P(6:10))
EV: 1.20-1.77

Bets:
(Goo, Puff) x (Bonnie, Buck, Fran)
Goo x Buck x (all in HH)

I don't like that chance of 6:10, but none of the booster arenas were safe enough to hedge it. Hopefully it'll be a double upset in the two base arenas (by non-starting 13:1's, though I'm worried about Young Sproggie).

Edit: Woot! The longest non-13 double upset hit! I only won 108:10, so Bonnie must have gone back down to 12:1 before the round ended, but I'm not complaining about that. I'm up to a respectable 77% net for the month now. Let's hope this streak continues.

Congrats on the awesome win, Siniri!
Busted. Covered Puff and Ned...but with Buck. I think the Bonnie bet was too far down, because it was so high, and I max out so much lower. Ah well.

Having to put tomorrow's bets in tonight, so not expecting much of them.
Stripe x (All in HC; Luck, Fed) x Goo
Puf x (Fair, Goo)
Stripe x Fair
Bonnie x Goo

Pickles, if I had been on my main, I wouldn't have covered that bet either, most likely... But on my side, it was worth less than half a million. *sigh* (I've lost out on 10.5M NP in FC winnings in the past 150 days - plus another 8.5M in bank interest - without compounding, which would be significant. My side doesn't even have anywhere near that much in the bank compared to what I've lost!)

Edit: Oops, sorry, forgot to post my bets earlier!

P(10:10-66:10): 71% (with additional chance of 4:10-6:10)
EV: 1.27-1.70

Bets:
(all in SW) x Stripe x Goo
(all in SW; Bonnie) x Goo
Stripe x Fair

My original set was going to be (all in SW, all in Lagoon) x Stripe x Goo plus the Bonnie and Fair safeties, but there was a 30% chance of a partial win, leaving only a 40% chance of a true win...

Edit: 66:10, woot! Hit my max bet for the second day in a row. Glad I went with the "safer" set - I actually won a bit more with it!

24:10. Not bad for super early bets.

Early again today, not much time, so mostly just straight following.

(Buck, Ed, Ned) x (Fed, Young)
Ed x (Black, Bonnie)
Ed x Young x Goo
Buck x Bonnie x Goo

P(12:10-54:10): 79%
EV: 1.08-1.78

Bets:
Ed x (Young, Fed, Bonnie)
Buck x (Young, Fed, Black)
Buck x Bonnie x (all in TI)

Very high chance of mediocrity today, but the positive arenas were pretty risky.

Edit: Should have trusted my system more. 3rd day in a row hitting my max bet, but it could have been 108:10 instead had I gone with the first ten bets in my system. Ah, well - definitely not complaining!

New day, new bets:

P(24:10-144:10): 59%
EV: 2.11-2.60

Bets:
(Scurvy, Orvinn) x Tail x Goo
Scurvy x (Young, Tail) x Stripe
Scurvy x (Young, Tail) x Goo x (HC - Capn)

I took out the Scurvy Young Goo bet to cover the Orvinn safety to increase my overall P(win). You could skip the base bet instead (only 8:10, but lowers the minimum win) or omit Orvinn safety. Honestly, I feel like Young is the strongest in his arena, so I probably shouldn't have skipped that bet...

54:10 yesterday, too, woot!

Put today's in quickly, no clue if I'll be able to do bets again for the next couple days, so we'll see.

Scurvy x Tail x Goo x (Ed, Fran, Buck)
Scurvy x Young x Goo x (Ed, Fran)
(Puff, Orvinn) x Tail x Goo
Scurvy x Tail x (Stuff, Fair)
Scurvy x Peg x Goo

56:10

Not my max possible, but still pretty awesome!

48:10, not complaining. Putting in bets now, rather than probably never. Blindly following, aside from pulling a couple safeties up from lower.

(Ned, Capn, Orvinn) x Fran x Scurvy x Buck
Ned x Scurvy x Buck
Ned x Fran x Buck
Fran x Scurvy x Buck
Ned x Fran x Scurvy
Ned x Ed x Scurvy x Buck
Ned x Fran x Young x Buck
Ned x Fran x Scurvy x Luck

P(8:10-72:10): 57%
EV: 1.47-2.11

Bets:
Ned x Fran x Scurvy x (Buck, Fair, Luck)
Ned x Fran x (Tail) x Buck
Ned x Bonnie x (Scurvy, Tail) x Buck
(Capn, Orvinn) x Fran x Scurvy x Buck
Ned x (Young, Scurvy) x Buck

Today feels a bit risky; let's hope the pirates give us something to be grateful for (and don't stuff their faces before the competition).

Edit: Looks like they couldn't resist the pre-competition feasts. Upsets in 4/5 arenas, so I busted.

New day, new bets:
P(12:10-48:10): 68%
EV: 1.57-2.25

Bets:
Luck x (Goo, Scurvy) x Fed
Bonnie x (Goo, Scurvy, Young) x Fed
(Luck, Squire) x Fed
Bonnie x Goo x Fed x (HH - Stuff)

Also busted yesterday. Quick bets today:

Bonnie x Goo x Buck
Bonnie x Young x Fed
(Bonnie, Luck, Squire) x Goo x Fed
Squire x Fed
Bonnie x Goo x Fed x (Ned, Tail; Black, Orvinn)

30:10

It should have been 36:10, but the odds shifted. Of course, had I bet after they shifted, I may not have won two bets... and any time I can triple my money, I'm happy.

20:10 yesterday.
Once again, following without changing, don't have time to think it through.

(Luck, Ned) x Scurvy x Fran x Buck x Goo
(Luck, Ned) x Scurvy x Fran x Goo
(Luck, Ned) x Scurvy x Buck x Goo
Luck x Scurvy x Young x Goo
Luck x Scurvy x Fran x Young x Goo
Luck x Fran x Young x Goo
Luck x Tail x Fran x Goo