Anyone here good with maths?

[Pardona]

*looks to the person who did those Grarrl Keno / struck by lightning calculations*

I was wondering, does anyone here have an idea what the chances of getting an MSP Poogle are?

[boatingbabe2001]

Getting a MSP Poogle from what, the lab ray?

To do this you need to know what fraction of events change the species and the color, how many pets there are, and how many colors poogles have.
From this you need to find the number of permutations because it has to go in the order of change to poogle, change to MSP. There are many other variables to this that make it almost impossible to predict.

The odds of this happening are really small though. Lets look at just poogles.

From my experience with the lab ray, you change species approximatly every 2-3 weeks. From this lets say the probability of a species change is 1/15. There are currently about what, 53 pets? So lets say the probability of getting a poogle is 1/53.

From these assumptions, the probability of getting a poogle, any kind of poogle, is 1/(15*53), or 0.00126. From this, you could predict that zapping every day, it would take over 2 years to get a poogle.

Good luck with getting a MSP Poogle, but unfortunatly, its pretty unlikely, as the probablity of getting a MSP Poogle is even smaller than getting a regular poogle.

This is why TNT needs to make them available in some other way, becuase the MSPs are just too awesome.

[bumpty85]

species change every 2 or 3 weeks? i want your lab ray! i zapped my pet for 3 months without a species change!

[Trick]

If you can get poogles to zap then your chances of getting one are much improved. A lot of people who zap to give away pets will give away poogles and other limited edition pets to those who are zapping for a rare colour like MSP - I'm not sure if they come up often here on ppt though?

Failing that there are magical poogle plushies which will change the pet back into a poogle but that could end up being quite expensive.

[Pardona]

Well, according to Jellyneo.net, your pet has a 5.4% chance of being zapped into another species. And apparently, it can't change your pet into a Krawk or Draik. Minus these two, and minus the species your pet already is at the time of zapping, that's about a 0.11% chance of being zapped into a Poogle. After that, you have to consider that there are 36 different colours for a Poogle. So, minus the colour your Poogle already is, and minus Pirate, Baby, Plushie and Royal (apparently the Lab Ray can't zap these colours). That leaves us with 31 colours. The chance of a colour change is apparently 9%

0.11/100= 0.0011
0.0011 * 9 = 0.0099
0.0099/31 = 0.003069 = Chance the Poogle will turn MSP

So I think the chance for an MSP Poogle (assuming there aren't any mishaps along the way that turn it back into a Skeith, or something like that) is 0.00033759 %

EDIT: Assuming you zapped everyday, you would be zapping somewhere around 811 years...

[theonlysaneone]

You could try using a transmogrification potion first to turn it into a Poogle, then zap. If you do this, your chances of turning it into an MSP are .29%, giving you an expected 345 days of zapping before it turns MSP. HOWEVER, you have a 5.4% chance of turning into a different species. That means you can expect your Poogle to transform 19 times, and you have to change it back each time. That's 20 total morphing/transmogrification potions/magical plushies that you would have to use. Probability-wise, this is the best strategy, but it would probably run out your wallet. I have no idea how much a Poogle potion costs, but I can't imagine it costing too much, because Poogles are so ugly.

[Pardona]

One problem: Mutant Poogles don't exist...

EDIT: Do Magical Plushies / Toys vanish after your pet plays with them? Or are they re-usable?

[Jamie]

They Vanish.

[Pardona]

And they go for at least 500K; whoop-dee-doo...

[theonlysaneone]

One problem: Mutant Poogles don't exist...

EDIT: Do Magical Plushies / Toys vanish after your pet plays with them? Or are they re-usable?

Mutant Poogles don't need to exist, because they are so ugly. However, the MSP Poogle is pretty cool.

[Blue0ctane]

Yeah, I'm lost - MSP?

[Pudding]

Well, there are obviously people who have gotten MSP Poogles earlier or waited longer than that. It's all down to luck, really. I don't know that I'd be willing to pay 500k+ every time my pet changed species, but if that's your biggest goal...go for it.

Yeah, I'm lost - MSP?

It stands for Malevolent Sentient Plushie.

[hallucinating]

Yeah, I'm lost - MSP?

Malevolent Sentinent Poogle

[-Ducky-]

Yeah, I'm lost - MSP?

Malevolent Sentinent Poogle

for me, Malevolent Sentinent Poogle is just too complicated to say (especially with a beak), so I just call it "That Weird Evil Poogle Thing" (TWEPT)

[Pardona]

But doesn't he look great? I mean, just take a look at him! By the way, hallucinating and -Ducky-: it's Sentient, as in aware, not Sentinent.