Pink Poogle Toy Forum

Today is another "super special day." In fact, there are currently *3* areanas that you can single bet in and not lose out on. O.o
To compensate for potentially fluxuating odds, I'd recommend this set:

Current range: 12:10 - 28:10
Young
Capn
Stripe
Goo x (Peg, Orvinn, Squire)
Goo x Fran x (All in HH)

Will update later with my own bets.

ETA: The more I look at the arenas, the more I feel like today is a trap. So....I'm going with some wild bets. Instead of the safe set. Yep. I'll probably bust, most likely, but I just can't see today as a 2's day. Goo and Scurvy still feel wrong. Totally just a hunch. There have been times before when the EV has been pretty high like this and they've pulled through, but from my notes, that's only about 50% of the time...at best.

So. Here's my crazy set. Definitely would recommend going with the "guaranteed to win" set over this!

(Ed, Bonnie, Scurvy) x (Squire, Orvinn; Stuff)
Stuff x Fran

Holy mackerel. I followed Siniri's bets. They paid out at 8:1! One big step closer to a Meridell mug

Nice work, Siniri!!

Yay! Glad you raked in the 80:10 win, too, Blue! Congrats!

I maybe should have started a trophy run on the 24th; I'd be at 224:50. Ah, well... the bank interest is nice, and others have had some big wins, too.

I'm now guaranteed at least 118% net profit for the month (sitting at 654:280).

New bets:
P(12:10-88:10): 73%
EV: 1.18-2.05

Bets:
Goo x (Luck, Orvinn)
Goo x Luck x (Lagoon - Squire, TI - Capn)
Goo x (Fran, Scurvy) x Peg

As expected, I busted. Ah well.

I almost wish I'd done a hold end of last month. I'd *still* be in first place, gaining the 750nps/day, which at this point, would've been well more than the loss of interest for the week.

Will place bets later.

ETA:
So I figure since I've basically destroyed this month as far as getting a good month's winnings in, I'm just going to continue for the last two days with crazier bets. So.

(Goo, Fair, Young) x Orvinn
Goo x (Black; Ned) x Luck
(Fair, Young) x Luck
(Fair, Young) x Fed x Luck
Young x Stuff

Yep.
ETA2: ASLKJHF. Underbet on half of my bets. Sigh.

ETA3: 44:10. BUT. It was one of the bets I underbet on mistakenly. Sigh. Lost out on nearly half the profit I could've made. asld;kfj;alsdkjf. I ended up with what would've been about 24:10 in actual winnings. Bleh. I need to be more careful putting in bets! Or maybe I've just been too tired lately. Or something.

I managed a 56:10 with my more conventional bets. Sooner or later, though, P, you'll hit the mega-win again.

If it makes you feel any better, I've been stuck underbetting for the past three months now, which has cost me 7.75M and counting (plus another 5.4M in lost interest, not compounded, for over 13M lost thus far).

New bets:
P(24:10-72%): 67%
EV: 1.71-2.43

Bets:
Scurvy x (all in HC) x Goo
Scurvy x (Luck, Buck) x Young
(Ned, Ed) x Buck x Goo
(Bonnie, Fed) x Scurvy x Buck x Goo

I like that P(win) combined with the minimum bet. Could be a trap, but hopefully we'll close out the month with nothing too crazy.

I think the fact that I've been exhausted isn't helping things. It's just frustrating to lose out on an actual win because you goofed your bet. Bleh.
I'm probably going to go back to more conventional bets starting tomorrow, just because. I'm too tired to think otherwise.

Here's today's:
Peg x Scurvy x Buck x Goo
Scurvy x (Buck, Luck) x Young
Scurvy x Luck x Goo
(Ed, Orvinn) x Buck x Goo
Orvinn x (Luck; Young)
Ned x Buck x Young
Ned x Luck x Goo

I got 32:10 on the Fran safety. Two days in a row, the odds have shifted on me, giving me a smaller win than expected (though still very nice wins!). I can't really get mad when the odds do that, though, because with the shorter odds, the bets' EVs went down, and I may not have even covered them in the first place.

Finished the month at 742:300 (147% net profit). Woot!

New month, new bets, not so great odds:
P(10:10-48:10): 89%
EV: 1.35-1.55

Bets:
Goo x (all in TI)
Buck x (TI - Bonnie)
Goo x (Lagoon - Orvinn)

Slightly cloudy with a high chance of mediocrity

Mostly normal, but definitely not 10-betting Goo.

Buck x (Young, Black, Bonnie)
Goo x Bonnie
Goo x Young x (Ed, Scurvy, Fair)
Goo x Black x (Fair, Scurvy)
Goo x Young x Scurvy x Squire

Could replace the last bet with Black x Ed. I strongly considered it.

ETA: 14:10 on Buck x Young.

14:10 on the same bet. Bummed there wasn't a double upset, but at least I won more than I bet. Mediocre start to the month, but I'm sure it will pick up sooner or later.

[10/2/16 10:45am] Bets:
Young
Bonnie x (TI - Puff)
Goo x (TI - Puff, HC - Squire)

BlueEdit: Fixed double post

Barely had time to get my bets in. Should've just followed Siniri, but I didn't, because what looked like would be the top bets at that time were significantly different. Oh well.

I had all of five minutes to calculate, post, and place bets (sorry for the double post above! I'm sure someone could make it disappear for me if it really bothered them... ), so I blindly trusted my system and somehow wound up with 18:10. Phew.

As of right now, there isn't a single positive pirate for tomorrow. I'm sure the odds will shift as others bet, creating some long-shot positive bets that are likely to lose, but I'll probably bet on them anyway. (If they end up having positive EV, in the long run, I'll win more NP than I lose on them.)

Edit:
The odds did shift, so here's a set with slightly positive EVs and a decent (but still long) shot of winning:

P(12:10-49:10): 44%
EV: 1.01-1.17

Bets:
(all in TI) x (Black, Scurvy)
(Ned, Tail) x Black

Warning: these bets are only positive because of the current odds. They're very risky with low EV. Follow at your own risk. (There is no truly safe set today. There will likely be positive-EV sets due to odds shifts, but it's volatile and risky.)

Suggested bets show up with a heavy bets on Peg and Black. I'm going to be a *little* safer and stick mostly with what Siniri did...but change the last two bets (taken from the top 18)

(All in TI) x (Black, Scurvy)
Squire x (Peg; Black)

Well, there was an upset in HC... but not the two I bet on. Busted, not too surprisingly. Ah, well. I win big enough often enough on days like today to make them profitable in the long run even though I usually end up busting.

Edit: Today is nearly as ugly as yesterday. Right now, there aren't enough positive bets to make a good set. I might bet closer to closing time if the odds shift.

Edit 2: Yay for odds shifts!

P(8:10-58:10): 46%
EV: 0.90-1.20

Bets:
Ned x (Young, Capn)
Luck x Capn
(all in SW) x Young
(SW - Puff) x Ned x Young

Very risky. Once again, recommend not betting. But of course I will anyway. Let's hope the odds are in my favor this time.

P.S. Thanks for fixing the double post, Blue!

Split! New split here