Food Club

[Siniri]

Figured it's time to make a topic on this, because Food Club is fun and the best way to make NP.

Today, there's an interesting situation where you could make a set of 10 bets with a 100% guarantee that you'll make a profit:

(SW = Shipwreck Arena, L = Lagoon Arena, TI = Treasure Island Arena, HC = Hidden Cove Arena, HH = Harpoon Harry's Arena)

1 (HH) Sir Edmund 13:1
2 (HH) Buck 13:1
3 (HH) Franchisco 13:1
4 (L) Stuff + (HH) Gooblah 26:1
5 (L) Captain Crossblades + (HH) Gooblah 14:1
6 (L) Squire + (HH) Gooblah 18:1
7 (L) Peg + (L) Scurvy Dan + (HH) Gooblah 36:1
8 (SW) Stripey + (L) Scurvy Dan + (HH) Gooblah 12:1
9 (SW) Tailhook + (L) Scurvy Dan + (HH) Gooblah 12:1
10 (SW) Ned + (L) Scurvy Dan + (HH) Gooblah 12:1

Other sets of bets are likely to give you a lot more profit, but the nice thing about this one is that you literally can't lose. So if you've wanted to try FC but couldn't afford to risk losing, this would be a nice set to go ahead and get your feet wet (and you might as well bet all the NP you're allowed to/can afford to - just remember to collect after ~2:48pm NST today -- or at least by end of Neopian day next Tuesday).

[Pickles]

Haha, it would figure that I made my bets today before reading this. That's a very interesting situation today! I probably would've stuck with my own bets anyways. I'm counting on Goo and Scurvy Dan, but if they don't win, I have a few safeties in there. Just hoping there's not a double upset. And that if Scurvy Dan doesn't win, Captain does.

According to the monthly winnings tally on my spreadsheet, two days ago I hit the point where even if I lose every day for the rest of the month, I still have turned a profit. It's definitely not been my best month so far (October I won 806:290), but I can't complain as I haven't been able to spend as much time focusing on what might be best or not (exhaustion has tended to reign lately), as I frequently evaluate multiple sets of bets. I hate 10-betting on any one person, and even more so on 2. There have been a few times that I could have earned more if I had 10-bet, but I've felt the safeties are worth it.

ETA: Should've gone with the guaranteed win. Only made out with 8:10. Ah, well. It would've been 12:10, not too much of a difference, but still...

[Siniri]

Haha, Pickles, I was going to post the exact same thing! I earned 252:80 over the past 8 days (including today), and I'm at 468:220 for the month so far, so I can't complain about nearly breaking even today. (My long-term average winnings are 81%... and a few others I've talked to range from 50-75%, including people who've been playing a few months up to nearly 6 years.)

[Pickles]

I think today is another "can't lose" day, if I've got this right:

1) TI: Fran 13:1
2) TI: Fair 13:1
3) TI: Luck 13:1
4) TI: Goo SW: Orvinn 26:1
5) TI: Goo SW: Stuff 26:1
6) TI: Goo SW: Peg 14:1 (as of current, opening was only 10:1)
7) TI: Goo SW: Buck HH: Scurvy 16:1
TI: Goo SW: Buck HH: Ned 12:1
9) TI: Goo SW: Buck HH: Stripe 16:1
10) TI: Goo SW: Buck HH: Capn 20:1

ETA:
I know it's less than an hour before the gates close (though they reopen for a bit after being closed from 1:45pm NST to 2:15pmNST - it currently seems to run the script at about 2:44pm NST), but here's another can't lose day! Odds are current at 12:55pm NST

1) Lagoon: Captain 13:1
2) Lagoon: Bonnie 13:1
3) Lagoon: Luck 13:1
4) Lagoon: Goo TI: Puff 26:1
5) Lagoon: Goo TI: Peg 26:1
6) Lagoon: Goo TI: Stuff 26:1
7) Lagoon: Goo TI: Buck SW: Ned 12:1
Lagoon: Goo TI: Buck SW: Ed 16:1
9) Lagoon: Goo TI: Buck SW: Fair 24:1
10) Lagoon: Goo TI: Buck SW: Young 12:1

[Siniri]

Tomorrow is another can't-lose day. If you place the following ten bets, you're 100% guaranteed to win at least your money back (unless the odds change before the end of the day...):

Arena Legend: SW = Shipwreck, LA = Lagoon, TI = Treasure Island, HC = Hidden Cove HH = Harpoon Harry's

1) Squire Venable (TI) 13:1
2) Orvinn the First Mate (TI) 13:1
3) The Tailhook Kid (TI) 13:1 (almost guaranteed to move to 13:1)
4) Puffo the Waister (SW) + Buck Cutlass (TI) 26:1
5) Admiral Blackbeard (SW) + Buck Cutlass (TI) 26:1
6) Fairfax the Deckhand (SW) + Buck Cutlass (TI) 14:1 (probably will move to 16:1 or 18:1)
7) Gooblah the Grarrl (SW) + Buck Cutlass (TI) + Captain Crossblades (HC) 15:1
8. Gooblah the Grarrl (SW) + Buck Cutlass (TI) + Lucky McKyriggan (HC) 12:1
9) Gooblah the Grarrl (SW) + Buck Cutlass (TI) + Peg Leg Percival (HC) 16:1
10) Gooblah the Grarrl (SW) + Buck Cutlass (TI) + Ned the Skipper (HC) 12:1

Note that Lucky or Ned might shift to 2:1. If a 2:1 pirate in HC wins along with Gooblah and Buck, you'd only win 8:10 (80% of your total bets back), so only bet the above if you're okay with only winning 80% of what you bet back (or you bet right before the new round changes, at ~2:45pm NST -- you're probably safe betting any time after ~noon NST, though -- if the odds haven't changed by then, they're unlikely to). If the odds stay as they opened, you'd win anywhere from 20% to 160% net profit. Not too shabby!

I personally won't be betting on any of the 13:1's. It's riskier, but has a higher chance of getting you a good return, to take out bets 1, 2, 4, and 5, and replace them with Goo x Buck x (all the pirates in either LA or HH). (You could also skip Goo x Buck x Stuff-a-roo (LA), since that also has a 13:1, and replace it with just Goo x Buck (likely adding 4:1 to any winnings you have). With this method, you'd have a chance of losing all your money, but also a chance of winning anywhere from 14:10 to 48:10-52:10.

Edit: The above foolproof bets ended up winning 16:10 today. I won 60:10 (nearly 600k gross, or ~500,000 NP net profit). In the less than three years I've been playing FC, I've made more than half my total NP ever earned (including many never converted from items, and that spent on items/training/etc.) through the game, I'm fairly certain.

Edit 6/5/2016:
Today's bets:
P(8:10-36:10): 84%
EV: 1.55-1.91

Bets:
Buck x (Fed, Fran) [SW x HC] (there are 2 bets here: Buck x Fed and Buck x Fran)
Goo x Fed [SW x HC]
Goo x Fran x (TI - Stuff, all in HH) [SW x HC x all in HH, and SW x HC x all in TI except Stuff]

P(8:10) = 22%
P(18:10) = 10%
P(20:10) = 13%
P(24:10) = 18%
P(28:10) = 11%
P(32:10) = 4.4%
P(36:10) = 4.5%
P(0:10-8:10) = 16%

P(less than 10:10) = 2/5
P(18+:10) = 3/5

All in all, it's a relatively safe day to start betting. Only bet with NP you can afford to lose, of course, and place all ten bets. Sorry I didn't get them up sooner.

[Siniri]

6/6/2016 Bets:

P(24:10-156:10): 38% (plus additional P(8:10)=29%)
EV: 1.58-2.11

Bets:
Goo x (Fair, Scurvy) x Black x (Fran, Ned)
Goo x (Fair, Scurvy, Stripe) x Black
Goo x Fair x (Fran, Ned)
Goo x Scurvy x Fran

A little risky today (1/3 chance of busting, 1/3 chance of 8:10, 1/3 chance of a pretty good win).

Edit: The smaller chance of 8:10 prevailed. At least I got most of my money back. Hopefully tomorrow will be better.

6/8/16 Bets:
Yesterday's odds were terrible, so I didn't post my bets. Which is good for anyone who might have followed them, since I totally busted. Here are today's:

P(16:10-184:10): 47%
EV: 3.81-5.05

Bets:
Goo x Fran x Luck x Scurvy x (Buck, Young, Tail)
Goo x Fran x Ed x Scurvy x Buck
Goo x Fran x Luck x Ned x Buck
Goo x Fran x (Luck, Ed, Stripe; Buck) x Scurvy
Goo x Fran x Luck x Ned

P(16:10)=19%
P(56:10-184:10)=28%
P(0:10)=53%

Bonnie's got high EV, but my max bet kept me from covering him.

If you wanted to play a bit more conservatively, you could cover Goo x Fran x Luck x Scurvy x Buck, the five 4-pirate combinations using those guys, and four 3-pirate combinations of those guys (Goo x Fran x (Scurvy, Luck, Buck) and Goo x Luck x Scurvy), which is called a 2sday bet (you'll win 144:10 if only 2s win...).

Edit: the above bets won 64:10. The more conservative 2sday approach won 144:10.

Edit 6/10/16 Bets:
P(14:10-26:10): 79%
EV: 1.28-1.66

Bets:
Goo x (all in Lagoon; Fed, Luck)
Goo x (Scurvy, Fran) x (Fed, Luck)
(arenas used are Lagoon, HC for Goo, and HH for Fed/Luck)

A relatively safe day with a high potential for a moderate return on investment (yesterday's bets were too risky, so I didn't share -- a good thing, since there were a ton of upsets and I busted).

[Siniri]

6/13/16 Bets:
P(18:10-32:10): 72%
EV: 1.94-2.22

Bets:
Scurvy x Buck x (Tail, Young; Fed, Goo) (TI x HC x (SW, L))
Scurvy x Buck x (Tail, Young) x (Fed, Goo) (TI x HC x SW x L)
(Fair, Ned) x Buck (TI x HC)

There's a small chance of winning 8:10 if there's a 13:1 upset in SW or Lagoon.

P(18:10)=11%
P(26:10)=8%
P(32:10)=54%

Not too shabby! Most likely outcome is 32:10.

[Siniri]

6/19/16: Today's a decent betting day, so I'm sharing my bets in case anyone would like to try.

P(16:10-56:10): 71%
EV: 1.98-2.37

Bets: (arenas: SW, Lagoon, TI, HC)
Ed x Buck x Goo x (all in HC)
Ed x Buck x Fed
Tail x Buck x (Goo, Fed)
Ed x Puff x Goo
(Ed; Goo) x Buck

(Note: an EV greater than 1 means that in the long term, that bet will pay back more than you spent on it. An EV of 2 means that on average, it will double your money.)

[Blue]

Thanks, Siniri!! I really cleaned up with your suggested bets. They paid out at 5.6:1. Awesome payback and well worth the time to play FC!

[Siniri]

Glad it worked out for you, Blue! Here are today's bets:

P(12:10-36:10): 70%
EV: 1.46-1.79

Bets:
(Black, Squire) x Buck
Ned x Buck x (Fed, Fran)
Ed x Buck x (all in Lagoon; Fed, Fran)

Moderate risk for a moderate reward. Definitely worth betting...

[Pickles]

So I finally got around to starting to do FC again this month (though I missed to of the first 3 days). I won 120:10 today! Between that, and the 84:10 last week (and several other smaller wins), I'm net positive 888k for the month...and that's if I bet every day from here on out and lose.

Can't complain, and definitely am glad I finally got back into this!


(AKA, this is a reminder for people who may not be doing FC to reconsider.)

[Siniri]

For the last 5.5 months, I've averaged more than 100% net profit on food club (placing 10 bets per day, and only missing 1 day in that time). Of course it depends on your account age, but that's a lot of NP!

Food Club is by far the most profitable earner on the site (unless you've got a ridiculously fast connection and the time/patience to restock... but even still, in terms of NP/time, FC wins, hands down).

If anyone wants me to share my bets here, let me know. I like to place them in the morning, after the odds have shifted a bit, but as long as you're fine getting them after ~3am NST, I can share my set each day. (Copying bets is allowed according to the NT, and it should only take 2-5 minutes to place the set.)

[Blue]

Thanks both. My vote is yes, please. I have been a bit lackluster on things lately, but definitely see the benefits of FC. It will be the fastest way to have the NP ready if another Battle For Meridell Mug ever comes along.

[Pickles]

I usually do my bets around now (11am-noon NST) so I'll start posting them now. Be advised: I use my gut sometimes, and may throw in bets that don't make as much sense.
Today's odds seem unusually flexible (except for in TI, which I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole, though I'm betting Goo won't win).

Fran x Bonnie x Tail x (Luck, Young, Fed)
Fran x Scurvy
Puff x (Young, Fed, Scurvy, Tail)
(Peg, Stripe) x Bonnie x Tail

[Siniri]

Here's my set:

P(16:10-84:10): 36%
EV: 1.40-1.80

Bets:
Fran x Bonnie x (Young, Fed) x Tail
(all in SW) x Bonnie x Luck x Tail
Fran x Ned x Luck x (Tail, Scurvy)
Fran x Bonnie x Luck x Scurvy
Stripe x Young x Tail

Very risky set today. Nearly 2/3 chance of busting. Follow at your own risk. (EVs aren't even really high enough to justify the riskiness... but sometimes I get lucky on days like today... about 1/3 of the time. )

ETA: Today was one of the lucky days... 72:10.

Edit 8/19: (Sorry, forgot to do these first thing... Will try to post earlier.)
P(24:10-96:10): 56%
EV: 2.63-3.04

Bets:
Goo x (Lagoon - Stuff) x Buck
Goo x (Lagoon - Stuff) x Buck x (Luck, Fran)
Goo x Scurvy x Buck x Young

My notation is similar to mathematical notation:
"Lagoon - Stuff" means everyone in Lagoon except Stuff

So the first line means these 3 bets:
Goo x Orvinn x Buck
Goo x Fair x Buck
Goo x Scurvy x Buck

The next line means these 6 bets:
Goo x Orvinn x Buck x Luck
Goo x Fair x Buck x Luck
Goo x Scurvy x Buck x Luck
Goo x Orvinn x Buck x Fran
Goo x Fair x Buck x Fran
Goo x Scurvy x Buck x Fran

And the last line contains the straightforward last bet. Hopefully it's easy to understand once you get used to it.