Seeing as everything is out in the open, and NPM is already dead and possibly okamotosan I 'll list who I think is suspicious. >_>
Dracolord and Autumn_Elf
Not saying you should go out and kill them immediately because someone said "OMG tehy R teh werewolvz!!!111" (let's get that straight), I'm saying I find them suspicious, that's all.
As for this whole... "thing" I'll stand back and let everyone else decide on what to do *shrugs*
As for this whole... "thing" I'll stand back and let everyone else decide on what to do. *shrugs* I will say though that just because the mafia is down the drain this execution, doesn't mean that the innocents are going to lose. In fact, it would most likely only put them at a slight disadvantage. Of course, if the the mafia decides to help the innocents, he'll probably be the target of the next mauling. While that sounds good on the outside, there's not a HUGE difference on the two scenarios (not to say that there isn't one)
Let's put his as simply as possible (sorry if this has already been mentioned, I didn't have time read through everything):
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If the innocents were to kill off the last remaining mafia member, they would in fact lose an innocent at the next execution. The count would be
5 to 2. This would put them at a medium advantage. Even if an innocent was killed at the next execution, that would leave the count 3 to 2. At this point, as long as the innocents don't make any more mistakes, they will win.
Chance of winning: 40% or higher (lower in the worst case scenario)
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We'll change this scenario for the better (but not best, since it's not extremely likely): Let's say that the werewolves go after the mafia, and the mafia kills a werewolf. At the same time the innocent kills one of their own. The good ot bad count would be 5 to 1. While this looks good and all from the outside, there's only a 20% chance that a werewolf will be killed the next round meaning that more than likely, another innocent will die, along with the mauling, putting the count down to 3 to 1. At this point there
is a benefit from keeping the mafia member. Actually about 50% (I think)
But keep this in mind, this is ONLY if it comes out this way. Also, while it's not likely, there IS that rules that basically says "Don't trust everything you hear!"
Chance of winning, 60% or higher (lower in worst case scenario, and 50% in lower case scenario)
*Lower case scenario isn't described because I'm to lazy to add that much mror to this message.
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I don't know if anyone will really get anything out of this, but there is a small advantage in keeping Chris alive. The real choice is would you rather have that extra 10% (what it would probably turn up as) or have a feeling of security? That's a decision that will have to be made by the innocents that are still alive...
Also, these only apply the following scenarios. There are many other instances, but these are probably the most likely to occur depending on what everyone decides... Also, the winning chances are only for the exact time and place that the scenario ends (like the 3:2 one the first and the 3:1 on the second).
I do not claim to be accurate, so there's no need to ridicule this. It's only an idea, not fact.
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Yes this games is extremely fun and addicting. :p I'll make sure to try and survive the next game...