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One hundred thousand Neopoints.
22 Identical Sealed Boxes.
And no Questions; Except One:
Deal or No Deal!
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As a number of you may know, I am going to be leaving, and I wanted to do something special. I'm not that great at all that much, so I thought that my special thing would be a nice little competition that will basically deplete my Neopoints funding.
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For those of you who do not know, Deal or No Deal is a devilishly simple game (for which we will be playing the UK rules of...) in which the contestant is randomly selected and brings forth a preselected box to the podium, in which an amount has been randomly sealed, just as the twenty-one other amounts have been sealed in the remaining boxes, such that each box has one amount of Neopoints sealed inside it. The amounts are as follows:
1NP
5NP
10NP
25NP
50NP
75NP
100NP
200NP
500NP
750NP
1000NP
1500NP
2500NP
5000NP
7500NP
10000NP
15000NP
20000NP
25000NP
35000NP
50000NP
100000NP
In turn, you will choose boxes to open. Naturally, as you open these boxes you will come to realise the approximate amount of the value in your box. By opting to open a box which has a large sum of money, you are making it much more likely that you have a smaller sum of money in your box. By revealing a smaller sum of money, the chances you have a larger sum of money in your box is greater.
This perception is important, because after each 'round' of varying length, I will offer you a sum of Neopoints for you to stop playing; in effect buying the box off of you. If you have eliminating many of the smallest numbers, I will think you have a large sum of money in your box, and naturally offer you a lot. However, if you open the largest of the numbers, the largest you can have is a lot lower, and I can get you to sell me the box for the lower sums of money. The first round lasts five boxes, and then each round after than lasts 3 boxes until you have two remaining, when you must opt for the final offer (which is generally approximately equal to the arithmetic mean) or open your box and win the amount contained therein.
For those of you confused, here is a sample game.
Round 1:
1NP
50NP
5NP
2500NP
10000NP
All of the amounts here are low, so I am scared that you will have a big amount in your box. However, I also know that it is early days, and that anything can happen. I offer 4000NP. It is conservative enough that I will liekyl make a profit if you deal, however, most players still have optimism of getting a much higher deal.
Round 2:
50000NP
35000NP
15000NP
Having just taken out many high numbers, it is more likely you have a lower number in the box. Also, the largest sum of money is isolated, and if you take it out then the offer will tumble. I offer a sum of money which encourages you to play on, in the hope that the largest goes - 2500NP
Round 3:
20000NP
25000NP
75NP
At this stage, the largest sum is ever more isolated, so the offer should not increase dramatically, but by having left the largest number there this long, I must comepnsate for that, by raising the offer to 4000NP. However, the offer is still low as there is a 27% of taking out the 100000NP this round.
At this stage; the board looks like this:
10NP
25NP
100NP
200NP
500NP
750NP
1000NP
1500NP
5000NP
7500NP
100000NP
It is, what is commonly described as, a 'one-box game'. That is that the offer will remain high as long as a the largest sum remains. The game, at this point turns into a game of chicken with the banker. The contestant sees how far he can push his luck before the largest sum goes; however, the banker offers low in order to encourage the player to play on.
Round 3:
750NP
5000NP
1000NP
There are 8 boxes left at this point, with the largest still there. The banker must raise his offer to 10000NP - to reflect the fact the largest remains. I would deal here, becuase there is a 37.5% chance that the largest will fall this round, and if it does the offer will with it. However, the daring player might carry on...
Round 4:
100000NP
200NP
500NP
... which would havebeen foolish, as the offer drops to 200NP. The new figure the banker has to avoid 7500NP, and the value of that is much less; so the offer reflects that.
The state:
10NP
25NP
100NP
1500NP
7500NP
Round 5:
25NP
100NP
1500NP
Here the last two boxes are 7500NP and 10NP. The banker pitches the offer at 2500NP. He knows that there is the threat of a much bigger value in his box, but the threat of going away with 10NP may tempt a plyaer in to taking a slightly deflated offer.
Esentially, it is a luck game, but the skill in it is knowing when to deal.
The games will take an amount of time each, and this varies depending on many things. If any player would like to take part, please post here. I will choose the player to play at random. I will get as many players as I can in each night; however, there are two points I must make:
- The Jackpot will decrease each game as I give away more and more. I'll game as much as I can until the end of the night to make money
- All games must be complete by Wedensday night as I'm going on holiday
- Not all players are guarenteed to play.
I will hold three sessions for gamers (GMT)
Tonight: 9pm to 10pm -- This is in an hours time!!
Tomorrow: 8pm - 9pm -- Eight PM is when this post is posted. (In 24 hours time)
Wednesday: 5pm to 6pm -- Slightly earlier to pack
Good luck! Post to apply, but as each game begins, I'll post the player who posts first, to speed it up.
The values in each box are determined at random I give you my word -- (Note: it is not in my best interests to give away little, as I'm leaving Neopets for good!)
Last edited by Matt on Wed Mar 22, 2006 4:43 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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